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True, the common currency trapped certain European countries in a fixed exchange rate with Germany, so that they could continue to afford to buy German products. But this appeared to be an advantage for which Germany would eventually have to compensate its Mediterranean neighbours in cash.

How economically strong is Germany? At one of the low points in the collapse of the Greek economy last autumn, the interest rate on Germany's six-month bonds fell to 0.08 per cent. People were paying Germany to hold on to their money. That is strong. On the other hand, Germany had some of its feeblest bond auctions ever over the same period, sales where the Bundesbank had to pick up government debt no investors would take. And Germany's government debt stood at just over 80 per cent of GDP. That is weak. Other countries treated Germany as if it were strong enough to bankroll others' debts, but not so strong that it should have much of a say in how that was done. 

Germany is in a predicament. On the one hand, it wants to show itself a good European partner, just as it did throughout the Kohl era. Europe's ruling elites insist on it. On the other hand, Germany cannot surrender its veto over changes in its economic policy. It cannot submit to a eurobond, or any pooling of debt that would allow the southern European countries to make free with Germany's money. And not just because Germany would suffer economically.

If the German government was to accept eurobonds, it would alienate three important constituencies. First, of course, are the voters, for reasons that go without saying. Second are the economists. Not only the supermarket-carousel economists with their neon-coloured paperbacks full of exclamation points, but also the orthodox university economists and the central bankers. Third is the German constitutional court. In the early days of the Greek crisis  certain measures were passed by regulatory authority. But the court ruled last autumn that only the federal parliament, the Bundestag, has the constitutional authority to send Germany's money to Greece, not the chancellor or her ministers, or any hand-picked Bundestag "special committee" either. The court wanted to ensure that the economic benefits of the euro, such as they were, cannot be turned into costs for its democracy.  

Nonetheless, if the history of European consolidation offers a single hard-and-fast rule, it is that all conflicts, no matter who is on what side, are resolved in favour of Brussels. A betting man would expect Germany to consent eventually to a common European debt instrument. A look at Mrs Merkel's dealings in the bailouts will show why.

Last summer the magazine Der Spiegel ran a feature alleging that Kohl had said of his successor, "Die macht mir mein Europa kaputt." ("She's wrecking my Europe.") Kohl denied the words but not the substance, and his attack has been cited by both friends and foes of Mrs Merkel as a turning point in her dealing with the euro. It certainly shows what a difficult hand she has to play. 

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Anonymous
April 13th, 2012
3:04 PM
"Two solutions are possible. You can adjust the currency to match the government, scrapping the euro and reintroducing the old national currencies. Or you can adjust the government to match the currency, transforming the European Central Bank into a lender of last resort (like the US Fed) and giving Brussels budget-making power over the whole continent." No prize for guessing which option the Eurocrats will opt for.

Anonymous
April 8th, 2012
5:04 PM
"more ex nazis than in the west"?? Can this claim be substantiated? fear of the Russian invaders sent most of them scurrying to Schleswig Holstein and in the early post war years the Russians found far more Nazis than did the Americans. They and the British were more concerned to rebuild the country than revenge.

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