The EU's collective paralysis over the conflict in Georgia was a signal of cowardice or indifference that is already having far-reaching effects elsewhere, notably in Ukraine's violent swing back towards state authoritarianism under its new pro-Russian government. This weakness is contributing to a new and dangerous division of Europe, and seems to be a betrayal of the EU's most important ideals about exporting democracy and supporting a Europe "whole and free".
The argument over Germany's geo-political orientation and the fate of the lands between Germany and Russia is a matter of make or break for Europe. The outcomes will be crucial to determining the character of the EU for the next generation. Yet they are routinely treated as too sensitive to address honestly.
However Radek Sikorski, Poland's foreign minister, recently broke that diplomatic silence, calling EU policy towards Russia "chaotic...with some member states holding the others hostage". The EU should show a clearer commitment to supporting the democratic forces in places like Ukraine where they are under very real threat. "The EU," he wrote in the New York Times, "should stand by its values and established norms of international conduct."
Britain's input could be hugely important in the attempt to make Sikorski's wishes come true. And the task of rescuing Europe needs to start with just two changes in outlook among the larger states — two points-switches on the EU's rails.
First, to save Europe, Germany and France should think hard about giving up their outdated, exclusive claim to be the arbitrators of what is good for a union of 27 states. It will be hard, since they invented and mostly built the system as it has developed until now. Successive French and German leaders, notably François Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl, took big risks to do that and they pulled off near-miracles, especially the creation of the euro and the drive towards a single European government. But that vision, devised to anchor united Germany securely in an integrated Europe, has proved imperfect. The new times call for a more pragmatic approach — even perhaps a more British one. It has to be one that allows for a more flexible and inclusive union, able to avoid the new continental divide between "ins" and "outs" already visible in outline from Istanbul to Kiev.
The UK is often seen on mainland Europe — quite wrongly, I believe — as the major threat to the EU's sturdy development. Certainly, a good many disputes are in prospect. This UK government refuses to transfer more powers to Brussels. It will refuse to let European prosecutors, if they come into being, have jurisdiction in Britain. It will resist intrusive powers for pan-European financial regulators, and fight against the 48-hour week. It wants to shift the balance of the EU budget decisively from farm subsidies to science and research. It also enforces EU laws more correctly than any other large EU country. But the UK remains one of the few EU states with the military and political clout to defend European interests, and it uses them often to good effect on Europe's behalf. Its decision to stay out of the euro has been called wise after the event by many, including the ultra-federalist Jacques Delors.
To save the EU will require an exceptional effort and an unprecedented meeting of minds. It must be done, though, because the alternative doesn't bear thinking about.
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