In Saudi Arabia, the cradle and the heartland of Islam, a full 5 per cent of those polled in 2012 described themselves as 'convinced atheists'. When one considers the mortal danger of apostasy, 5 per cent is an immense figure. Even more staggeringly, only 67 per cent of Iraqis polled said they were sure that God exists, with 32 per cent not sure that God exists and 11 percent as atheists.

These newly godless are quite clear on what drove their conversion — the relentless horror of jihad, especially when it strikes their own societies. In 2008, the New York Times interviewed an 24 year old Iraqi who said, "I used to love Osama bin Laden.  Now I hate Islam."

There's a lot of talk about "reforming" Islam, but that is another of those empty words. When non-Muslims say they hope for an Islamic reformation, they mean that the Ummah should undergo the same loss of power and fanaticism as did Christianity. But it was not the reformation that did that — Martin Luther campaigned for a more repressive and fanatical church. What ended the power of Christian theocracy in Europe were the dreadful wars of religion that followed. As this isn't the seventeenth century, it isn't surprising to find Muslims not switching to gentler and less fanatical versions of their faith, but becoming atheists outright.

That ads yet another wrinkle to the refugee drama. Any Muslim turned away from Slovakia has the choice of converting to Christianity.  It will be interesting to see how many take that option.

The dynamic that one only needs a determined 10 per cent to change an entire society has another worrying implication.  As I have written previously, Islamists are not merely an illiberal force on their own, they inspire other illiberal movements.. There are signs that many non-Muslim nations simply do not want anything more to do with Islam — Austria's recent measure banning foreign funding for Mosques and insisting all Imams must speak German, Poland following Slovakia's lead, Moscow's ban on further mosque construction, China ruling that Muslims must sell alcohol during Ramadan. There are also uglier signs — there's a viral video of a thirteen year old girl addressing the Indian V.H.P. and saying that India has the armies and the nuclear weapons sufficient to reconquer all of Pakistan and eradicate its Muslim population.

There's a lesson from history that should be terrifying to all. Historically, the final result of Jihad conquests has been a reaction from the infidel world that is as terrible. The Crusaders, the onslaught of Hulaghu Khan, the rise of Slobodan Milosevic were all directly linked to the jihad extremism of the day. Foolish people often accused Tony Blair and George Bush of being crusaders, even as both went out of their way to profess their respect and admiration for Islam. Yet if history is allowed to repeat itself, we could be sure that there would be no attempts to bring democracy or establish freedom. Instead, it would be true crusaders drawn from every society, armed with the most terrible weapons in human history.

I'm an atheist and think that the end of religion is to be welcomed. When I think about Islam, I am struck with the thought that the question isn't whether or not it can be reformed, but whether it will fade from the world without getting a lot of people, mainly its own innocent adherents, killed.