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The padding that fattens the Black Swan up from a chapter to a book is worse than irrelevant fluff; it is angry, righteous and self-congratulatory. It also hints at a flimsy grasp of the non-financial subjects he strays on to and of the philosophy of science. 

Taleb's scepticism is not restricted to the chance of very unlikely events. He thinks that we generally know less than we think, and that economics and much of modern science is bunkum. The Nobel Prize for economics and its winners cause him special psychic pain. At a conference in Mexico in 2009 (which you can see on YouTube) he claimed that the supposed knowledge of modern doctors has made no contribution to extending our life expectancy. The human body, like the weather and the economy, is too complex to be amenable to science. As evidence, he claimed that when elective surgery is briefly suspended (perhaps because of a strike), death rates do not increase. I will not insult you by pointing to the well-known facts that contradict this scepticism about modern medicine, nor explain how Taleb's "evidence" could be correct without supporting his conclusion. 

Taleb's extra-curricular absurdities are often expressed in the style of a post-modernist literature student. He talks about "narratives", "reductive categories" and "what lies on the other side of the veil of opacity". He thinks that claims about the origins of the universe or the reality of death need no evidence when uttered by the religious, because they are using holy terms rather than scientific ones. He thereby endorses the relativists' fantasy that a mere choice of jargon can absolve you of all intellectual obligations. 

He has now published a book of aphorisms, The Bed of Procrustes, heavily promoted on the BBC Today programme. A collection of aphorisms would usually be assembled by a fan after a lifetime of brilliant work and pithy nuggets of wisdom. But Taleb cannot wait, nor rely on others fully to appreciate his wisdom. So he has delivered his own collection of freshly-cooked nuggets. It is not only the vanity of the enterprise but the aphorisms themselves that are excruciating. They reveal Taleb's obsession with a handful of topics, but mainly with himself: erudition (that's him), charm (him), wisdom (him), nerds (not him), the internet (which is for nerds, not him), philosophers (him), suckers (not him), hard work (which is not for geniuses like him), paid academics (not him, except in fact) and the great men of antiquity (of whom he is a late example). If only it were true.

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Anonymous
November 24th, 2012
7:11 PM
Taleb does not argue that the financial crisis was a black swan. He maintains it was entirely predictable (just a matter of when, not if). But of course, he's arrogant. Let's count a management consultant to provide insight; that's surely a genius move.

John Perez
December 31st, 2011
8:12 AM
I think over three quarters of the Taleb book reviews on Amazon make the same observation about his arrogance as well as the lack of real content in his books. Everyone agrees.

Adam
June 18th, 2011
8:06 PM
A superbly written and very incisive article. Would that Taleb could express himself half as well as this. He appears to regard himself as one of the great thinkers of our time, and yet offers nothing by way of elucidation or entertainment. His Black Swan, at 184 pages in length, was at least 180 pages too long, and even after what I am sure was extensive proofreading and editing, it came across as the work of a very-self satisfied 16-year-old, for whom English was not a second or third language, but possibly an alien one.

Animesh
April 4th, 2011
11:04 PM
One of the worst books I ever read. Same guy who had the fancy idea of solving the financial crisis by converting debt to equity. what exactly is this “equity” of which this fool speaks? In return for lowering interest rates on bad home owners … the banks get “equity” in the form of what? Maybe an option on your bed room. Truth is he is old...and just trying to make up money by spreading news for those who are willing to read crap. I don't hear Jim Simons writing articles on financial modeling.

jim
March 10th, 2011
8:03 AM
I read "Fooled by Randomness." Most educated people could benefit from this book. Just skim or ignore the pompous bits. He lays out a lot of the fallacies that we're susceptible to. "The Black Swan" isn't really necessary if you understood "Fooled by Randomness."

JG
March 6th, 2011
7:03 AM
My struggles with The Black Swan as I was constantly held up by the careless writing and apparently total absence of intelligent editing led me to accept that Taleb was clever but a self-indulgent blowhard who, thank you for encapsulating an important truth Mr Whyte, was worth a single chapter or journal article. More significant is the fact that he rightly gives credit to Benoit Mandelbrot whose 2004 book "The (Mis)behaviour of Markets" - paperback edition October 2008 - is a vastly superior compelling and lucid account of the problems which have arisen from price changes not being Gaussian like errors in astronomical observations and makes time spent on The Black Swan a complete waste. Also, a numerate friend put me on to Leonard Mlodinov's "The Drunkard's Walk" when I wanted something more readable on randomness than Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness". He was right. Mlodinov is the lucid author who teamed with Stephen Hawking to right the difficult but fascinating and readable "The Grand Design". I am glad that some of the blog commenters believe they have spent their time well on The Black Swan but the absence of any reference to Mandelbrot, in particular - whose work by the way give no credit to Taleb, or even mentions him anywhere-, suggests a rather limited background in finance or mathematics or just plain educated reading.

Reader
January 17th, 2011
12:01 PM
This review, I think, misunderstands something basic about Taleb. Taleb does *NOT* think that he has knowledge scientists, economists, doctors, or others do not have. His point -- which is I think is significant -- is that while he knows he does *not* know what will happen, many people (especially experts) think they know. Taleb doesn't claim to have predicted the financial crisis! All he did was to note, before the fact, that those who are so sure they *do* know the markey would *not* collapse might well be wrong. He predicted a crisis is *possible*. That seems like a very easy prediction to make -- when is a massive crisis not possible? -- but it isn't, especially when so many "experts" had so many "proofs" "explaining" how the "rules have changed" and a crisis just like the one that had happened is NOT possible.

Ed L
January 5th, 2011
10:01 AM
Grim book by an unbearable levantine.

Spydermelon
January 4th, 2011
5:01 AM
I'm grateful for the comments on Black Swan -- I couldn't get far into that book or Fooled by Randomness. I found its tone (occasionally arrogant, condescending, egotistical) off-putting. But if you're brilliant, hey why not? and who am I to judge that? Well, I finished his book of aphorisms, and I have to say it has the same faults only mightily condensed. And the aphorisms do not justify the self-satisfied airs of Mr. Taleb. Also, the writing is so bad (honestly) I wondered if it was a bad translation. His "Postface" is a cringe inducing discussion of aphorisms -- cringe inducing because the grandiloquent prophetic claims he makes for classic aphorists like La Rouchefoucauld, La Bruyere, and Chamfort are obviously meant to apply to himself as well. "...with some show of bravado in the ability of the author to compress powerful ideas in a handful of words --" and ".... elements hidden in the texture of reality start staring back at you; then mysteries that you never thought existed emerge in front of your eyes." This may be true of the aphorists Taleb admires;it is not true of Taleb's aphorisms.

Anonymous
December 29th, 2010
5:12 AM
Taleb actually describes the GFC as a white swan. The irony is that the ranting which you display in your prose is precisely the ranting which you criticise in Taleb's book. I guess the difference is that Taleb is wealthy and financially independent and you are not.

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