Air strikes have no doubt blunted its territorial gains. But what caused IS actually to lose territory was old-fashioned ground operations mounted against its positions. Territory is still conquered or lost with ground forces engaging in ground battles. That was the obvious response to al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan after September 11. It is mindboggling that IS terror outrages in Europe have not triggered the equivalent action.
That is why, third, if Western forces cannot be deployed due to combat fatigue after 15 years in Afghanistan and Iraq, and above all for fear of casualties, then Western leaders should put aside their hesitation about arming the Kurds. With all the air strikes launched by coalition forces and the threat of Russian strikes, the only people who have dislodged IS forces from territory they conquered, both in Iraq and Syria, are the Peshmerga, the Kurdish military. Yet, by and large, they are still fighting with antiquated, Soviet-made equipment against an enemy that was able to seize massive quantities of American weaponry originally destined for the Iraqi army. The Kurds have no doubt benefited from the air strikes. That is exactly why they should be armed. They will fight IS to defend their homeland, no matter what. It would be preferable if they did so with Western help — for that is where their gratitude will eventually turn. Yet don’t count on help coming to the Kurds quickly; such a move might lead, ultimately, to Kurdish independence and the further splintering of Iraq.
The West should not only acknowledge that a ground deployment of sorts is, ultimately, the only way to quash IS once and for all, but also accept that the map of the Middle East cannot remain unaltered. Syria is no longer a state. Iraq was never a country. The price of Iraqi unity has been to let the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad empower Iranian-sponsored Shia militias whose brutality has contributed to pushing Iraqi Sunnis further into the arms of IS. Syrian unity is equally pointless to pursue as a political objective. That half-emptied and thoroughly devastated country will not come together again.
Yet the old map of the region remains an article of faith for Western chancelleries. Unless these templates are changed, the war will drag on and, with it, the danger that Islamic State’s trained jihadis will slip through the borders and reach Europe for more terror strikes.
That is why, third, if Western forces cannot be deployed due to combat fatigue after 15 years in Afghanistan and Iraq, and above all for fear of casualties, then Western leaders should put aside their hesitation about arming the Kurds. With all the air strikes launched by coalition forces and the threat of Russian strikes, the only people who have dislodged IS forces from territory they conquered, both in Iraq and Syria, are the Peshmerga, the Kurdish military. Yet, by and large, they are still fighting with antiquated, Soviet-made equipment against an enemy that was able to seize massive quantities of American weaponry originally destined for the Iraqi army. The Kurds have no doubt benefited from the air strikes. That is exactly why they should be armed. They will fight IS to defend their homeland, no matter what. It would be preferable if they did so with Western help — for that is where their gratitude will eventually turn. Yet don’t count on help coming to the Kurds quickly; such a move might lead, ultimately, to Kurdish independence and the further splintering of Iraq.
The West should not only acknowledge that a ground deployment of sorts is, ultimately, the only way to quash IS once and for all, but also accept that the map of the Middle East cannot remain unaltered. Syria is no longer a state. Iraq was never a country. The price of Iraqi unity has been to let the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad empower Iranian-sponsored Shia militias whose brutality has contributed to pushing Iraqi Sunnis further into the arms of IS. Syrian unity is equally pointless to pursue as a political objective. That half-emptied and thoroughly devastated country will not come together again.
Yet the old map of the region remains an article of faith for Western chancelleries. Unless these templates are changed, the war will drag on and, with it, the danger that Islamic State’s trained jihadis will slip through the borders and reach Europe for more terror strikes.
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