We shall never know. What we know is that it was left to his unlikely heir apparent, Ehud Olmert, to show Israelis that Kadima's middle path between Oslo and Greater Israel, eternal war and vacuous peace, was the change Israelis had been waiting for. Since then, unilateralism - Kadima's trademark - has begotten two inconclusive wars, in Lebanon and Gaza, while exposing Israel to murderous and terrifyingly random rockets, courtesy of Iran and its Hamas and Hizbollah proxies. With Oslo killed off by terrorism, Greater Israel overrun by demography, unilateralism devastated by rockets and Iran's nuclear threat looming, there were few new options on offer and little difference, aside from personality, between the frontrunners. No wonder then that the election resulted in a confused and chequered landscape of 12 parties and no clear mandate. With 28 seats, Tzipi Livni can hardly claim a blank cheque. She stemmed the Likud tide and her party survived, despite its manifest failure in government during the last three years. But she did not gain enough seats to lead alone. Her rival, Binyamin Netanyahu, saw his huge opinion poll lead evaporate, yet he more than doubled his party's strength from its abysmal performance in 2006.

The iron logic of Israeli political arithmetic, coupled with the challenges ahead, points to a coalition of Likud and Kadima. Most Israelis have favoured a unity government since the collapse of the Oslo process in 2000. Neither Livni nor Netanyahu may wish for each other's embrace. Neither leader commands enough strength in the newly elected Knesset to be the real boss of a joint project. It won't be easy. But Israel's coalitions have never been both broad and stable, unless their policy is no policy at all. And the political distance between them is not so great; hence there is no excuse for mutual exclusion. This need not be Livni's - or Netanyahu's - fate. Unity has a redeeming quality in times of crisis. With Iran just over the horizon, and the great battle of our times looming in the region, Israelis can ill afford the consequences of division.