The Nato intervention in March 1999 took place only after prolonged international diplomatic efforts had failed. Yugoslav forces had already driven more than 400,000 people from their homes, many of which they destroyed by shelling and arson. The UN Security Council had passed a resolution (1199), invoking Chapter VII of its charter (the "enforcement" provisions), demanding a withdrawal of the forces "used for civilian repression". A large observer mission from the Organisation for Security & Co--operation in Europe, which had operated inside Kosovo, had reported further massacres of civilians. Western governments, which had spent more than $20bn coping with the previous war in Bosnia and its tide of refugees, had both genuine humanitarian concerns and a real interest in preventing the spread of instability in the wider region. When Nato started bombing, it was to make Yugoslav forces withdraw from Kosovo; when they agreed to do so, it stopped. Only someone who has been entirely without access to news reports could imagine that Russia's actions have followed anything like this pattern.
But what about the claim that Russian recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia follows the Kosovan example? Here the argument can seem more plausible - at least to those who have never understood the legal and constitutional basis for Kosovo's independence. And those people include, unfortunately, most Western politicians and diplomats. Asked to defend their recognition of Kosovo, they have either plumped for a general argument about the principle of self-determination or insisted that Kosovo is a "special case" (thanks to the exceptional nature of the Serbian repression and mass expulsions), which does not follow or create any precedent. Each of these arguments may have some value, but neither suffices to build a solid legal and constitutional justification.
Yet such a justification does exist. Kosovo has a solid claim to independence, based on a well established precedent: the precedent of Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia and Bosnia. Western governments have been surprisingly bad at explaining this. The only person who has stated it clearly is the President of Croatia, Stipe Mesi?, who has pointed out that the underlying justification is the same for both Kosovo and Croatia: both were constituent units of the former Yugoslavia.
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