I am not saying that artists should have prophesied the breakdown in the eurozone any more than they should have predicted a liquidity freeze in the banking system. Imaginative writers are not forecasters, nor should they try to be. In the past, however, they possessed a nose for trouble: an instinctive understanding that, to use John Stuart Mill's words, "ages are no more infallible than individuals," and that opinions and institutions virtually everyone supports will seem as absurd to the future as those of the past seem absurd to us.
Let me use the example of a television drama the BBC ran a few years ago to explain what I mean. It featured an ageing Baader-Meinhof terrorist who began a bombing campaign against American bases in Germany. The hero discovered that she was not being controlled by a hard-Left criminal mastermind but by British army officers. They reasoned that if US forces were under attack, American pride would stop its leaders acting like cowards and pulling their troops out of Europe. America had to stay, one explained, because the notion that Britain should depend for its security on co-operation with the French was intolerable.
The author did not predict the failure of the single currency, but his drama stayed in my mind because he had hit on a dramatically plausible and under-explored idea. Contrary to the arguments of europhiles and eurosceptics alike, the EU was not a "superstate" or any kind of state. It lacked the strength and determination of a traditional nation and no one could rely on it to act with the necessary firmness in a war or, as we are seeing daily, an economic crisis.


















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