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Even Brown's erstwhile allies at the BBC and the Guardian have turned against him during his struggle for survival. The whole world asserts that, from Wales to the South-East of England, Labour's results were truly shocking. So they were. But very few observers have bothered to mention how disappointingly the Tories fared. It has not suited the mood of the media to point out anything that might give the smallest crumb of comfort to the hapless Brown.

In fact, in the European elections, the Tories won an unimpressive 27.7 per cent of the vote, an increase of only one per cent over their performance in June 2004, 18 months before Cameron rode to the rescue. Believe it or not, the Tories won a significantly larger share of the vote in the dark days of 1999 than they did in the European elections on 4 June. 

I know — European elections are different. There are lunatic parties like Ukip, and nasty ones like the BNP, which have taken votes from the Tories, many of which will revert to them at the next general election. I understand, too, how dangerous it is to extrapolate. Yet one might reasonably argue that the success of marginal parties at a time when Labour is so unpopular suggests a certain lack of enthusiasm for the Tories. The results of local elections, in which the Conservatives won 38 per cent of the vote — short of the magic 40 per cent — hardly suggest a surge in their support.

Sages attribute the Tories' poor showing to a volatile and vengeful electorate that wanted to punish politicians in all the main parties. Conservative strategists hope it will be different on election night. Maybe it will. In fact, I am pretty confident. "David Cameron's Tories" will probably win the general election as a result of the amazing unravelling of Brown and the New Labour dream. We all expect it. The foreign currency markets are counting on it. The result is practically in the bag. 

And yet hardly anywhere in Tory circles — not even in local Conservative associations — do you encounter the belief and the hope and the excitement that hovered over Anthony Charles Lynton Blair before New Labour's victory in May 1997. As for the wider nation, it can hardly be said that Cameron has yet caught the public imagination.

It's part of my job to try to follow politics, but I can't say I have much sense — if any at all — of what sort of government Cameron will lead. Will it cut public expenditure and, if so, by how much? (If it doesn't, we're doomed.) How will it improve our lamentable education system? Will it resist the relentless tide towards further European integration? Will it, like its predecessor, allow uncounted numbers of immigrants into this country? The answer to all these and several other important questions is: I really don't know. Does anyone?

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UK Fred
October 17th, 2009
10:10 PM
Steven Glover is wrong in one material aspect of his article at least: BNP votes come not from former Conservatives, but predominantly from disaffected Labour voters. This (OK then it was the National Front) was the secret of the Conservatives winning Stechford in the 1970's and if one looks at the distribution of BNP votes in the European elections, they are again predominantly from areas that would heve been seen as Labour's natural territory. there should be no surprise in this fact because the policies of the BNP, with the exception of the policies on race and immigration are remarkably similar to the policies of "Old" Labour from the days of Tony Benn and Denis Healey. They are the natural successors to Oswald Moseley who always proclaimed himself to be a man of the Left.

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