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How to escape, however, baffles the most resourceful mandarins. A revised Constitutional Treaty would take the member states back to square one, with a new round of drafting and ratification. The text would be a nightmare to agree, and long before the finishing post was in sight the British public would have killed off the project in a referendum.

Two other plans for rescuing the EU Constitution have been canvassed. The first - the exclusion of Ireland from full membership of the union - was quickly dropped. Its illegality apart, the expulsion of a member state would potentially be the thin end of the wedge of the dissolution of the EU.

A more plausible plan, championed by President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, is to visit on Dublin a package of charm, bribes and veiled threats in the hope of persuading the Irish government to call and win a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty before the British general election. The incentives would include comfort about their take from the EU budget, protection of their right to a commissioner, a promise not to attack Ireland's low-tax regime and helpful declarations on neutrality and abortion. Unwritten assurances, however, would be mistrusted, and opt-outs written into protocols would count as treaty changes, triggering the fresh ratifications that integrationists so fear. Moreover, polls predict that a second referendum would suffer a defeat at the hands of Libertas, the "No" campaign run by the energetic businessman Declan Ganley -which could well break the government coalition.

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tom kremer
October 9th, 2008
4:10 PM
The current crisis offers a great opportunity to the Conservative Party. In the coming European elections it should focus on an emergency reduction of the EU budget. The whole of Europe, private and public will have to tighten its belt. There is every reason that such a move will prove popular with the electorate of all CONTRIBUTING countries. It would be difficult for Merkel, or even Sarkozy, to oppose a reduction in the money flow from the national states to an un-audited central account.

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