In January, the Afghan government announced that more than 1,000 prisoners were to be released and has urged similar action in Pakistan. Consequently, a new "safe passage" agreement between Kabul and Islamabad has reportedly eliminated any preconditions to prisoners' release and with it both the carrot and stick to potential agreement between the West, regional governments and insurgency groups. 

If Afghanistan is to reclaim its full sovereignty, it should have the power to hold its own criminals and administer its own justice, but the current approach does not allow it to do either. Releasing serial offenders back into the fray means further instability and, lacking a US presence, possible civil war between warring factions and the Karzai government. A decade of war may be ending, but the present course of action will not keep the peace for very long.