OL: I’m certainly not going to stake my life on the lack of cynicism of Gordon Brown; we can agree about that! But no, I think there is a realistic prospect of moving in that direction.

DJ: Let’s turn to the global question, bringing in Nigel’s point about the danger of putting globalisation into reverse and the dangers of protectionism.

OL: Yes, there is a point of agreement between us there. I am, as much as he is, a free-trader, and the party doesn’t sponsor any attempt to move back towards protectionism. But the question Nigel is raising is whether there is any realistic prospect of some form of international agreement which brings in the Americans, the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians, the Russians, the EU and the Japanese. And if you step back a few years, it looked as though there wasn’t any chance that the Americans would accede to such an agreement. But it isn’t just the Democrats who have changed; whichever president we have next is likely to be of a very different disposition from the Bush administration’s. So America is likely to shift. I don’t think that anybody knows what the attitude of the Chinese government to these matters will be in even two or three years from now. In India there is a lively discussion going on and there is a considerable will to participate in such an agreement if the Americans are on board.

NL: It’s the other way about. The Indians have made it clear that no way are they going to do it. The Chinese tend to speak with two voices, but the more senior voices say no way are they going to accept a limitation on their emissions — though they’re very happy to accept technological aid from the West. But on the acid test of whether you’re prepared to accept an international agreement binding you to a limit on your emissions, they on the whole said, “no way”. Now recently the Russians have said no way will they do it.