There are two bad reasons. David Cameron and François Hollande may have different policies and politics, but they currently share the same problem. Their governments are discredited and in disarray, and each hopes that muscular leadership abroad will repair its reputation. Despite what has happened in Egypt and elsewhere, Mr Cameron feels that he played the Arab Spring with aplomb, and he wants to renew the impression. President Hollande startled himself and everyone else by his vigour in Mali and he, similarly, is now tempted by un peu de gloire. This is how small wars begin and grow. Yet neither Britain nor France could assert itself were it not for the second bad reason — a belief in Washington that anything, anywhere, that weakens Iran — Syria's main sponsor — is worth it. Without any strategy to rein in the mullahs directly, the indirect strategy of overthrowing Assad and undermining Hezbollah is all that's left — no matter the long-term consequences in the region. Israel, for understandable reasons, thinks much the same. This odd conjuncture of domestically driven and internationally condoned cluelessness is not, however, the end of the matter — because there is the Bosnia angle. Indeed, without that angle David Cameron, facing strenuous opposition in the Commons, would probably have to give up.
And he should give it up, because the parallel is false and the conclusions flawed. Evil was, indeed, rampant and unpunished 20 years ago in the Balkans. In July 1993, the late, unlamented Slobodan Milosevic announced: "I think we are on the threshold of the final solution: the main remaining question is a question of maps." They would be made in Belgrade.
Within the shell of the old Yugoslavia, a genocidal ideology, defined by Serb intellectuals, preached by churchmen and enforced by peasant paramilitaries, sought to exterminate or "cleanse" the Bosnian Muslim population. The Muslim (Bosniak) relative majority within Bosnia was determinedly secular, moderate, rakija-imbibing, part-European and part-Balkan, led by an inexperienced elite of easygoing intellectuals. It didn't pose a threat, and it didn't stand a chance. As the years went by, and the death toll mounted, the religious factor grew. Jihadists arrived from North Africa and the Middle East. But they were not effective, they were much resented, and they have largely gone; and though Bosnia today is a failing state, its problems stem from corruption and obstruction, not zeal.
The Syrian crisis is entirely different — as different as the Middle East is from the Balkans. The ruling regime in Syria, unlike Milosevic's Greater Serbia, has no governing ideology. Its Baathism is a worn joke. It is an Alawite-dominated, clan-based system, supported by religious minorities who fear the chaos that the alternative threatens. The decisive role within the opposition is played by groups such as al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra. Radicalisation is not, as in Bosnia, a risk: it is an all-encompassing reality. Unlike in Bosnia, Islamism in Syria has an indigenous base. It is funded and supplied by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which direct their support to Salafis, not to secularists. If Assad is overthrown by force, as Britain and France wish, rather than eased aside, as Russia would grudgingly concede, the Alawites, Christians, Druzes, Shias, and those Sunnis who do not accept rigorous sharia, will face expulsion, intimidation and death. For its part, the West will face a grave new threat to its interests and security. Compared with that, dysfunctional Bosnia will look like the home counties.
Post your comment
- Beirut: Hariri — An Assassination Too Far
- New York: A ‘Post-racial’ American vs an Old Coot
- Pristina: Kosovo's Liberal Islam
- Oslo: Courage and Cowardice in Scandinavia
- ONLINE ONLY: Washington, D.C.: It's Not Rocket Science!
- La Hague: Recycling the French Model
- Jerusalem: No Via Media for Anglicans
- ONLINE ONLY: Beirut: Blood Holiday
- Rome: Arrivederci Roma
- Darfur: Panic at the Palace
- ONLINE ONLY: Letter from Bamian
- Caucasus: Diary, August-September, 2008
- ONLINE ONLY: South-East Asia: The Demons of Ignorance
- New York: Diary
- Ypres: Never Say Never Again
- New York: A Cousin in the White House
- Caracas: Chávez's Secret Fan Club
- Prague: Diary
- Park City, Utah: Movie that Pulls Aside the Veil
- Beirut: Blood on the Streets
- India: Tariq Ali's Plan for Pakistan
- Berlin and Cologne: A Tale of Two German Cities
- Mumbai: On the 'Slumdog' Trail
- Budapest: Screwed Left, Right and Centre
- Paris: Mayhem in the Marais
- Stanford, CA: Intellectual Life Under Obama
- Colombia: A Nation Reborn
- Paris: Prisoner of the Barbarians
- United States: The Path to Rome via San Francisco
- ONLINE ONLY: Black Russian
- South Africa: The ANC'S Health Lesson for Obama
- Lisieux, France: Relics of Thérèse
- Germany: Heidegger - Being, Time and Place
- Moscow: Putin's Empire Strikes Out
- Connecticut: My Battle Against Google
- Montana: Home From Home on the Range
- Siberia: In Search of the Gulag
- Rio's Heart of Darkness
- Mogadishu: Armageddon on Steroids
- Havana: The Castros Will Not Be Absolved
- Kaliningrad: Russia's Outpost in Europe's Heart
- Bishkek: Bloodsoaked Revolution
- Bishkek: Downfall of a Dictator
- Oslo: Signing OFF on Human Rights
- Bajaur: A Talk with the Taliban
- Bahrain: Women Drivers Welcome Here
- Tajikistan: In Search of the Yeti
- ONLINE Only: Ankara's Proxy
- Johannesburg: Hard Pressed
- Istanbul: Press Freedom Alla Turca
- Xinjiang: Taming China's Wild West
- The Lesson of Oz
- The Surge is Working — So Far
- A Tale of Love, Bulls and Goats
- Old-order Collapse
- Egypt's New Dawn Chorus
- From Carthage to Kasserine
- After Gaddafi: A New Libya Emerges
- To the Polo Saddle Born
- The Settlements: Life Between the Lines
- Exposed: Carnita's Cover Story
- "At last, I feel proud to be Libyan"
- Books Do Furnish a Little Freedom
- Fat Chance for Christie—This Time
- Easy Lies the Head that Wears the Crown
- Putin's Chinese Whispers
- Cain Isn't Able and Newt Defies Gravity
- The Ten Years' War against the Taliban
- We The People Say: Get Out of The Way
- Wanted: A New Ronald Reagan
- Time to Crunch the Numbers
- Who's Really Supreme?
- From Art as Life to Blood and Soil
- Talking Tactics
- The Wagner Family Soap Opera Rolls On
- Winning the Veepstakes
- Romney Takes a Risk with Ryan
- Window Brothels Get the Red Light
- Can Romney Spring an October surprise?
- Canada's Crusader for Conservatism
- No-Go Areas on the Campaign Trail
- Republicans Must Avoid Civil War
- Norway's Problem with Anti-Semitism
- Turks, Arabs and Jews: The Middle East in Crisis
- Nations United in Hypocrisy
- Siberia: Shamans, Spies and the Secret Police
- Barracked by Obama's Oratory
- Women Come Last in Syrian Refugee Camps
- The Dawn of Obamageddon
- Americans Know Her True Worth. Do We?
- Hapless Hollande’s French Farce Flops
- Save the NYPD So It Can Save the City
- Obama's Secrets Start Unravelling
- Syria Isn't Bosnia: Don't Arm the Rebels
- Who Can Stop Hilary in 2016?
- Teaching China's Anglophiles
- On Pilgrimage with the Hasids
- From Eastern Europe to the East End
- True Grits
- The Rise and Rise of Marine Le Pen
- Cold Comfort On Global Warming
- Hunting the Lynx with the Old Believers
- High-tech Israelis Aim For The Moon
- The Russians Are Coming
- The Turbulent Minister is Right
- Bad Times for Good Samaritans
- This Expat Paradise is a Woman’s Nightmare
- Two Generations Lost to Communism
- Strangers in their own Holy Land
- The Isles are Full of Big Noises
- The Kurds: Israel's not so Improbable Allies
- Islam and Innocence: Canada’s Predicament
- The Fifth Republic’s Darkest Days?
- Let's Make Putin's London Cronies Sweat
- The Global Politics Of Netanyahu's Victory
- A Grim Prospect For South Africa's Jews
- No End In Sight To The Exodus From Libya
- Undeterred, Erdogan Usurps Ataturk's Legacy
- Gaza Withdrawal Symptoms
- Red Flags Flying Over Parliament Square
- Mutinous Talk In The Highlands
- Our Principles Are All We Have
- Why The Swedes Have Had Enough
- Canada's First Nations Come Last
- Islam and the French Republic
- Unconventional Convention
- The Dying Days Of Zuma's South Africa
- Capitalist rebirth of Hoxha's hellhole
- Cyril Ramaphosa's poisoned chalice
- Trump's big gamble on North Korea
- Catalan myths must now confront reality
- Is South Africa about to fall apart?
- Refugees are big business for the UN
- Saving Europeans isn't the Italians' job
- Enter the Professor, Putin's Balkan stooge
- The Merkel era ends in angst and anger
- I'm Not Antisemitic, But...
- The ELM, Dispatches and Awlaki
- A Larger Than Life Predator

















