That evening, I also meet a woman who has been sacked that very day by Barclays after 13 years at the firm and only a couple of years short of retirement. She's being replaced by a younger person from one of the Lehman Brothers units bought by the bank. She seems shell-shocked. Her husband, who like many people here believes that the dollar will continue to strengthen as Americans and others flee to US government bonds, says he's looking forward to travelling to Europe again as it becomes less expensive.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

While I'm having breakfast in a newly-opened high-end bakery, the manager says that business has gone up over the past week. Next door, a coffee bean emporium run by Chinese-Americans with strong Bronx accents is packed with people buying exotic varieties to grind at home. Apparently, people treasure the small inexpensive pleasures of life at times like this. If so, it's good news for the Korean nail salons, the Egyptian hot-dog vendors with their ubiquitous carts and other purveyors of comforting treats.

Media friends posit other potential benefits of a downturn. One recalls the last recession as a politer, more egalitarian time. Another wonders if a property crash might bring back the artists long driven out of Manhattan by soaring rents. I can't help but remember that in the early '90s the city was less dependent on the financial industry than it is now.

But the people in the café terrace look calm and peaceful as they enjoy the warmth of an Indian summer day. Perhaps they are making the most of the last good times before the inevitable tsunami hits the city; perhaps they are simply sure that New York can and will survive anything that is thrown at it.