Romney was undoubtedly the best of the Republican candidates, but it was an extraordinarily weak field this year. In 2016 the Republicans are likely to be fielding Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, Rob Portman, Marco Rubio and Chris Christie, possibly Bobby Jindal, and doubtless several others of similarly outstanding calibre. This year, however, the Republicans must work with what they've got. So what are the positive signs for Romney, besides the woeful economy, lacklustre Obama job approval ratings and hopes that people are fibbing to pollsters?

Every president who has won re-election since Andrew Jackson has won a higher percentage of the vote in his second election than in his first. That is clearly not happening with Obama. Furthermore, Obama is not a good hand-gripping, touchy-feely politician, and he does make gaffes, though the mainstream US media loathes having to report them. His campaign theme of inequality as "the greatest challenge of our time" has singularly failed to excite Americans, except those on the Left.

There is also still more than enough time for what in US politics is termed the "October Surprise". In the past these have included Henry Kissinger announcing "peace is at hand" in Vietnam 12 days before the 1972 election, the indictment of Caspar Weinberger on Iran-Contra charges four days before the 1992 election, the leaking of George W. Bush's 1976 drink-driving conviction two days before the 2000 election, and the financial meltdown in October 2008. These "surprises", which are often carefully controlled and well-planned explosions, can be devastating if not managed correctly. So far the Obama administration has been deft in its handling of its two worst scandals — over the Solyndra stimulus cash misappropriation and the Fast and Furious guns-for-drugrunners affairs — but anything can happen in an October Surprise.

The best October Surprise for Romney would be a really good showing in the three presidential debates, which start on October 3. Whereas the conventions were watched by 29 million Americans, the debates are expected to be watched by over 60 million, more than twice as many people and a really significant proportion of the electorate. If Romney is forthright, courteous yet hard-hitting, as he occasionally showed he was capable of being during the many candidates' debates when running for the Republican nomination, then the whole election could be flung wide open. A few fluffed lines by Obama, who is not as practised or quick on his feet as Romney presently is, could put Ohio back in play literally overnight. If Romney grasps the opportunity to lay out a convincing alternative vision for the future of the United States, of a country strong, free and above all solvent, and avoids getting hit by too much of the mud that Obama will undoubtedly fling, then the swing states might well swing back his way. He is an intelligent and articulate man, and these debates represent his last chance to win over a public that is still sceptical about him. If he were able to come through them with enhanced likeability numbers, especially among his problem areas of women and Hispanics, the White House could be well within Romney's grasp again. The chance of becoming the most powerful man in the world must be worth taking the odd risk. If his numbers are still looking bad in Ohio, Florida and Virginia on October 3, he will have to ditch his cautious approach completely.

Another wild card in this election are those millions of left-wing Americans whom Obama has disappointed repeatedly since they ululated ecstatically over his absurdly hyperbolic promises of hope and change four years ago. Guantánamo Bay is still open; the ocean levels haven't receded; Wall Street wasn't genuinely discomfited, let alone occupied, and Obama wasn't the radical revolutionary they'd hoped he would be. If significant numbers of disappointed left-wing voters punish Obama by not turning out in 2012 he could well lose, but he is probably right to rely on their loathing of the Republicans to herd them into the polling booths once again in November. A reluctant vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one.

So the answer to my opening question is: yes, Romney could indeed still win — but only if fortune favours him and he is brave.