It comes down to the extent to which Cameron's pride and loyalty limit his ability to tell his friend, who remains general election supremo despite the appointment of the Australian Lynton Crosby as Cameron's strategist, that his analysis here is offbeam. What the Conservatives most certainly do not need is another round of self-flagellation by the Tory modernisers and a misguided concentration on militant social liberalism. That will only splinter the party's existing vote, when they should be seeking to build a coalition of Conservative interests that is as broad as possible. That means avoiding diversions so that the largest number of potential supporters can unite around an easily understood proposition. In an age of small parties and anti-politics voter resentment, when it is difficult for Conservatives to get a majority, this becomes doubly important. 

Cameron should stick ruthlessly with the themes he has started to map out. If he does, he will be on the ground he needs to win. To get there he will have to filter out the Chancellor's more liberal warblings (something the Prime Minister is usually loath to do) and focus relentlessly on promoting economic opportunity, trumpeting Michael Gove's outstanding education reforms and selling Iain Duncan Smith's changes to welfare. Do that and he can win.