Leaving aside a few old hands, most Iraqi politicians are in their thirties and forties, which means they have spent their formative years in the new Iraq, learning the rules of democracy. Conversations with dozens of them over the years indicate that almost all are determined to make democracy work in Iraq. This new generation is at the heart of a consensus that governments should be formed and changed only through elections and parliamentary methods set down by the constitution. 

Iraq is at present the only Arab country where such a consensus exists. That consensus in turn may have made Iraq the only Arab country with a decent prospect of stability. This was part of the reason Iraq hosted the latest Arab summit in March. It was the only Arab state considered to be peaceful enough to ensure the security of such a summit.

 In May, it was the turn of the Islamic Republic in Iran to acknowledge Iraq as a stabilising force in the region by suggesting that talks with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany be held in Baghdad. 

In Baghdad the coalition government led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki may collapse at any moment with the defection of half a dozen members of parliament to the opposition. A new general election could also change the political configuration throughout Iraq. It is so far the only Arab country to have held three free general elections and have experienced three changes of government through changes in parliamentary majorities. 

Elsewhere in the Arab world, however, people still think of revolution, coups, armed struggle and dynastic change as the only ways of changing governments. The future of countries that have experienced the Arab Spring revolts is too difficult to predict at this point. They may, as we all hope, seize the opportunity to move towards democratisation. However, they may also relapse into despotism either in the name of Islam or that of law and order. Thus Iraq remains the best hope for democratisation in the Middle East.