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The possibilities of the Germans themselves bringing about an early end to the war depended in large measure on one or other of the scenarios outlined coming to fruition — in particular the success of an attempt to kill or depose Hitler. Even in the very last months, most of the Nazi leaders beneath Hitler were prepared to make overtures towards a negotiated peace. As late as April 1945 Himmler deluded himself that he could open negotiations with the Western Allies and prove useful to them in a continued war with the Soviet Union. But every attempt within the German leadership to broach the prospect of a negotiated peace foundered on Hitler's utter refusal to contemplate a "cowardly capitulation", such as in his view had ruined Germany in 1918. The incapacity as well as unwillingness of Germany's dominant elites to challenge, sideline or topple him, once the bomb plot of July 1944 had failed, meant that his veto on all attempts to negotiate terms with the Allies met no opposition. And from the point of view of Germany's enemies, the longer the war went on the less reason there was to bend from the demand of unconditional surrender. 

Ultimately, with Hitler dead and Germany militarily exhausted and totally defeated, the new head of the German state, Grand-Admiral Karl Dönitz, saw no alternative but to bow to Allied terms. By then, compared with the imagined scenarios presented above, millions more had died and Germany was a devastated country, completely occupied by its enemies.

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Anonymous
September 19th, 2011
9:09 PM
Very thoughtful what-if article. Thank you for publishing it. You make the excellent point that a significant amount of death and destruction in Western and Central Europe occurred in the period June 1944 through April 1945. How much could have been avoided, and whether it should have been avoided, is an interesting question. I further think that there is a lot to commend your analysis of the resulting situation if the Stauffenberg bomb had been successful in killing Hitler. Regarding the other two situations, I _respectfully_ disagree. In both the cases you cite, there are great similarities. As the Germans armies retreated to the German homeland, the character of the war changed to a defense of family and home. Also, remember that there was strategic decision by the allies to invade, capture, and occupy the German homeland as well as the requirement for unconditional surrender. The German military was going to stiffen on that basis alone. Second, in both cases, the allied armies outran their supply and organizational abilities. This was a reflection of the technology and understanding of organizational abilities of those times. Even the vaunted German "Blitzkrieg" in its heyday hit such limits and was forced to pause. Third, it may be that, had the Soviets been a different nation and army, they might have been better able detect the German weakpoints and to have conducted a German style offensive and destroyed the German eastern armies more efficiently. Of course, had the Soviets not been Soviets in World War 2, they might have destroyed the Germans in 1941. Or collapsed in the first few weeks of the war, as the French had done the previous year. Fourth, in the case the Allies, it may well be true, that had the meager availible supplies been distributed in a different way, and had there been no other consequences, there might have been even more effective offensive. Certainly, that view has been put forward by a number of different groups, from supporters of various schools of military thought as well as supporters of specific generals, all the way through to Anglo-phobes. My own view is that there were very important political reasons for the division of supplies. And in the end, military should be subordinate to the political rather than the reverse. Again thank you for your thoughtful and well article. By the way, I just picked up your book and look forward to reading it!

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