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Greece, Portugal and Spain are in far worse positions than Germany was then.  Within the existing monetary arrangements, Greece, Portugal and Spain are already insolvent. Within the existing monetary framework there are only two "solutions" to the current mess.

The first is a transfer of funds from the current account surplus counties (in effect the German bloc) to Greece and the other countries with large current account deficits. A one-off payment (even if spread over three years) will not work: it would have to be an annual payment in perpetuity, on lines similar to the transfers from West to East Germany after unification. The scale of these transfers would be huge, possibly 35-40 billion euros a year to Greece (and much larger, 100bn euros a year, if similar arrangements had to be made for countries in similar positions). This would wreck Germany's own economy and public finances. 

The second solution would be a massive devaluation of the euro, say to 50 cents against the dollar. A small devaluation would not be enough for Greece and the others (though it would help Germany, but the last thing the world needs is a depreciation of the currency of a country with a huge current account surplus). But the necessary scale of depreciation would set off very high inflation in Germany. Neither of those "solutions" will happen, or if they did they would involve economic, financial (and possibly political) disaster in Germany.

There is no example in history when a country has got out of difficulties like those of Greece (or Spain or Portugal) without devaluation and/or default. If Greece and the other "Club Med" countries were to default and leave EMU it would have huge implications for the German banking system and elsewhere. A default by Spain would probably wreck Germany's banks, which might have to be nationalised. The least bad option would be for the German bloc to leave EMU. Germany's banks might still have to be recapitalised, but it would be less costly than trying to "rescue" Greece. 

The new "deutschmark" would appreciate, making the rump euro countries more competitive, with at least the prospect of rescue. Their debts would remain in euros rather than depreciated drachmas, pesetas, etc. Not ideal, not painless for Germany or other countries in EMU, but like old age, better than the alternative.

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Peel
May 18th, 2011
3:05 PM
Brilliant article, many thanks. Dr Stuart is one of the very few MPs who treats fact and truth as first order issues rather than material for spin. Do look at her speech in Hansard on the EU Draft Budget, and Justine Greening's feeble, desperately feeble, response. Ms Stuart: ' Can the minister tell us whether a vote on this matter either way would make the slightest bit of difference?' Ms Greening said she would 'pressing the case' for UK budget cuts' - but now we face a 4.5% increase, and Osborne is paying up. Gisela Stuart deserves our thanks for sticking to honesty as a primary virtue in public politics.

Chris Gillibrand
June 28th, 2010
9:06 PM
That should be "Auf nimmer Wiedersehen"- goodbye and get lost (literally to never seeing you again), rather not even a goodbye, rather an adieu.

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