"The most powerful man in Russia today is Putin. He is like a Tsar and his business interest is Gazprom. Putin wants integration with the West but on his own terms. He knows that because of what he has done he is personally inacceptable to the West. That is why he created Medvedev. He uses Medvedev to say things that he cannot himself for fear of destabilising his relationship with the hardliners. They want Russia to be European — a second Japan, linked to the West, but not part of it."

Surikov suddenly then offered me the rest of his cake. I politely refused.

"The second most powerful man in Russia is Igor Sechin, whose power base comes from the intelligence and military networks and his business interest in Rosneft. Sechin takes money from China and is the main China lobbyist in the government. He views Russians as Asians and wants an alliance with Beijing and a tightly controlled one party state. "

Surikov then ordered a Coca-Cola.

"The third most powerful man in this country is Alexei Kudrin. He is in complete control of Russian finances.  The fourth most powerful man in this country is Ramzan Kadyrov who controls Chechnya. He has his own army, networks and relies on the webs of the Chechen diaspora and his relationship with Putin. Afterwards I suppose you would find Medvedev and his liberal associates."

Surikov smoked heavily and began to analyse the soft underbelly of Putin's Empire — its Caucasian marches.

"Putin's connection with Kadyrov is purely personal — the connection of a Tsar to his vassal. Stability relies upon this alone in the North Caucasus. If it were broken, mass violence would begin again. The Kremlin is not in complete control of the security forces in the area. Some of the murders are done by rogue elements that seek to undermine Kadyrov. They hate him because he has gained something close to independence by stealth. You must not think of the security forces as uniform. There are clans, agendas and bandits among them. The FSB clans are faking some attacks for divide and rule policies."  

He pushed his cigarettes in my direction and paid full attention to the remains of the cake. Surikov seemed in a candid mood.

"They say you are an active member of Russian military intelligence. Is this true?"

He looked me straight in the eye. There was no more cake.

"When asked I deny it.  If not asked I don't mention it."

Without prompting he continued his analysis. I heard a certain urgency in his voice.

"The reason there was no war in Georgia this summer is that Vice-President Biden's speech showed US resolve and it frightened the Kremlin. However the greatest threat is the fact that Putin is not completely in control of the agents, clans and factions of the army and the secret services. There are those who are staging attacks to undermine the government or those that stage them in order to benefit from chaos or send a message to the authorities not to interfere in their businesses. These can be anything from drugs, to arms or human trafficking. This is a real problem in Chechnya, less so in South Ossetia and to a far lesser extent in the Crimea. They are bandits but they are not responsible for the Georgian War in 2008.  Remember that was the personal revenge of Mr. Putin against Mr. Saakashvili."