It is no coincidence that talk of "a new Cold War" between Russia and the West has generated a good deal of interest in Teheran and Damascus.

Iran and Syria are under sustained pressure. They are so isolated that each is the only formal ally of the other, although they are not natural bedfellows. Syria has shown some signs of beginning to bend, engaging in indirect peace talks with Israel and taking some steps to improve control of its border with Iraq. France feted President Assad in Paris in July, and President Sarkozy reciprocated with a visit to Damascus last month.

Western countries do need to conduct a sustained dialogue with Syria but without any illusions about its policies. Its openings to the West may have as much to do with a stagnant economy and domestic woes as with international pressure. And Damascus has not yet converted from its old ways: it still shelters Hamas, arms Hizbollah and rules by fear.

Some in Damascus might hope that a "new Cold War" would focus Western attention away from the Middle East and on to Russia, and allow an unreformed Syria to shelter under Russian patronage. This could be what Assad had in mind when he visited Russia as the invasion of Georgia was under way, describing Russia's actions as a "response to provocation", while seeking Russian promises to supply his regime with new military hardware.

For Iran, a far bigger player in the region, the benefits of a new Cold War might appear even greater. Sanctions are harming its economy and affecting its restive population. Two neighbouring regimes have been overthrown by US-led coalitions in the past seven years, and it knows it could be next.