First, America and her allies would have to withdraw troops from Iraq and Afghanistan immediately. In Afghanistan, this would lead, within months, to the overthrow of the democratically-elected Karzai government. Those who couldn't flee would be dealt with in the traditional Afghan way. Though there would be no official handover (no foreign body would be willing to enter the country), Afghanistan would be unofficially handed back to the Taliban and warlords. The girls' schools would finally be closed but the training camps could reopen.
In Iraq, the democratically-elected government, now in control of the majority of the provinces, would have to fight a renewed insurgency. Security would be sustained for a while. But once coalition troops withdrew from the most dangerous areas, there would be not just a new assertiveness from the Sunnis, but a counter power-grab from Iranian-sponsored forces in the south. The government would put up a considerable political and military fight, but as violence against the Sunni minority increased, their representatives would pull out. Unstopped by American and other coalition sacrifices, Iraq should be able to be back to a post-Samarrah situation by mid-2009 with a full-scale civil war following shortly. With the Shia finally getting an unfettered opportunity to end their Sunni problem, and Saudi and other forces poised nervously on the borders, the Armageddon scenario for Iraq could finally occur.
Having already withdrawn from the now-thriving Gaza, the Israeli government could attempt other successful retreats in the coming months. Once empty, the Shebaa farms could be fought over by Lebanon and Syria. A judenrein Palestinian state could be created in the West Bank. Mahmoud Abbas's government would topple to a Hamas coup as swiftly and bloodily as Fatah was toppled in Gaza. Jordan would see its worst-scenario emerge, with a Hamas-controlled state ready to foment similar trouble inside the country.
Elsewhere, the referendum wishes of the people of East Timor could be overturned and the jihadists' gripes be satiated by the return of the country to Indonesian control.


















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