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Therefore, instead of prompt and decisive action, but agreeably to his governance style, Obama turned to rhetoric, most prominently in his 4 June speech in Cairo. There, in the passage on Iran, Obama's "above the world" visage was on display: "I understand those who protest that some countries have weapons that others do not. No single nation should pick and choose which nation holds nuclear weapons...And any nation — including Iran — should have the right to access peaceful nuclear power if it complies with its responsibilities under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty." Moreover, on Iran's support for terrorism, such as financing Hamas and Hizbollah, the Administration has done and said little, thus effectively abdicating leadership responsibilities in dealing with Iran. 

Despite the riotous outcome of the presidential election, Obama nonetheless reaffirmed on 15 June that he still wanted direct bilateral negotiations with Iran.  So, such negotiations will doubtless ensue, with Tehran all the while continuing its pursuit of deliverable nuclear weapons and its support for terrorism. Much remains to unfold on the Iran front, but Obama's otherworldly approach to date does not bode well. Arab states near Iran will also sense US weakness, and react accordingly, either seeking their own nuclear weapons capabilities, or making deals with the new hegemonic power in Tehran, or both. In all events, strategic stability throughout the region will decline. 

Intimately related to Iran, of course, is the Arab-Israeli dispute, and here, the "un-Bush" aspect of the Obama presidency is at its most pronounced. Among Arabs, and Muslims more generally, the response to Obama's Cairo speech was overwhelmingly favorable. The venue, the tone and the quotations from the Koran all generated enormous enthusiasm, even if most concede that the speech was short on substance. It is objectively hard to understand why the reaction should be so euphoric since the text was indistinguishable from many Bush speeches, but the fact of the reaction is indisputable.

Whether Obama's speech will make any difference in the real world, or even how long the euphoria will last, are entirely different questions. What is making a significant difference is the dramatic change in America's attitude toward Israel and the seemingly endless "Middle East peace process". Obama has, among other sea changes: adopted the European view that solving the Arab-Israeli dispute will facilitate solving all other Middle East problems; demanded adherence to the "two-state solution" with no tolerance for heresy; taken the hardest US position against expanding Israel's West Bank "settlements" since the 1967 war; and insisted on speeding up the "peace process" in ways that can only work to Israel's disadvantage. And, most importantly, Obama has leaned heavily on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu not to use military force against Iran's nuclear facilities, despite the overwhelming evidence that Tehran can now fabricate nuclear weapons at a time of its choosing, indifferent to external considerations or pressure.

Israel has never been more distant from a US Administration, but politically Obama has so far covered himself effectively with the pro-Israel community, suffering few if any adverse political consequences. He may read that community more astutely than others, sensing a weariness with Israel's struggles that he can exploit, or at least use to protect his political flanks. America's strategic priorities are, of course, independent of domestic constituencies, but the basic political fact is that if the pro-Israel community tolerates Obama's policies, it should not be surprising that many other Americans simply lose interest. That is what Obama may be counting on, as he whips Israel along the road to Damascus, Tehran and other exotic destinations. 

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Bob from Virginia
August 16th, 2009
4:08 PM
Soft on Iran and its nuke program, hard on Israel, dismissive of democracy in the Middle east and Honduras, giver of a Medal of Freedom to Mary Robinson; Thomas Sowell was right, if Obama only wrecks the economy we can count ourselves lucky. And so many predicted this from day one of his campaign. Prime Minister Howard of Australia said in February 2007 "If I were running Al Qaeda in Iraq, I would ... be praying as many times as possible for a victory, not only for Obama but also for the Democrats.".

Charles Griffith
August 5th, 2009
9:08 PM
Am I correct in thinking that this "Standpoint" is a UK publication? Then, many thanks to "Standpoint" for publishing this essay. But, from what I've read elsewhere, it doesn't seem to reflect what the great majority of the pundits in the UK are saying publicly. We need much, much, more of John Bolton's forthright and blunt analyses....This American thinks that we Americans are far, far too concerned with our "popularity". Endless bales of our cash broadcast worldwide during the past one hundred years have yielded little more than scorn. The puzzle remains why we Americans can't seem to learn from this reality of our being "used". Sad to say this, but here it is.

John
July 31st, 2009
4:07 PM
Eric, the effects of Bush? Oh, perhaps you mean the effects of decades of legislating that banks and lenders should give risky (ie bad) loans to people because, afterall, EVERYONE deserves a house, regardless of how unrealistic the aim. And besides, from what I know (since there could be more), Obama has hired racists, eugenicists, radical abortionists, tax-cheats, a self-confessed communist and now a guy who thinks trees should have the right to sue. Nice change, huh?

Eric
July 14th, 2009
3:07 AM
Give Obama a couple of years - change is not going to happen in the time period of a year and it is sure as hell not going to reflect while he is still in office - we are still in the middle of the effects of Bush.

Occam's tool
July 9th, 2009
3:07 AM
Obama can be simply summed up as the following: 1) A friend of traitors, if not one himself. 2) The weakest defender of America since James Buchanan. 3) An idiot economist. 4) A compulsive liar and psychopath. The outcome of his Presidency will be an unemployment rate coming close to 20%, and a WMD attack on the US, unless Republicans take over the House or Senate in 2010 and put an end to his scummitude. Incidentally, everything he is doing was easily predictable from the race he ran, and his comments.

Airgrpcomm
July 5th, 2009
1:07 PM
It will remain to be seen what Obama will accomplish. We as Americans have had great presidents, as well as poor presidents, but as yet. We have no treasonous presidents, our country dosen't want treason in WhiteHouse hince thats why Hilary wasn't elected. We as American's may have stepped forward with Obama but he cannot afford to play as President. America needs reform ? Yes it does, it needs to go back to where Americans, had to speak English to obtain citizenship, It needs to return to the Ideals of IN GO WE TRUST, and Merry Christmas,people who wish to remove these hard won beliefs need to be removed because they are clearly not Americans and will cause our great country to fail. Pray tell me please why does a person leave another country and come to America, because of religious persecution or tyranny, then get here and try to remove the very marrow of American in effort to make our country like theirs. If a person can't believe American. Leave. If you don't believe in helping American retain her greatness.... leave. Obama will show his true colors. All men do, great men and weak men alike. In Vietnam, our men had to believe in a harder and colder mind set of enemy.Now we are at war...on two fronts..with warriors who believe it is more important to die for their cause, then live for their beliefs.

Anonymous
July 5th, 2009
4:07 AM
The young lady that was shot in Iranian by a government sniper was as much a hero fighting for freedum as any one. My hart gos out to her family, and all the fallen that fight to be free of a government that forces its will on the people it should be protecting. The Hondures Senate, Supreme Court, and Army got it right in supporting and upholding there constution. I only wish the Senate and Supreme Court in the U.S. would have the guts to do the same. Under what athority can any President fire a CEO of a privet company? Or take controle of Banks and Auto Companies? He's a President not a King.

Ragfish
July 3rd, 2009
6:07 AM
Some of us in the USA view Obama as a KGB groomed trojan horse. Revenge from Russia with love! He is designed to end American preeminence and make way for someone's vision of a One World Government, Economy (and Religion?). Psychologically, his means of adaptation center upon appeasing rather than confronting. His early abandonment by a Comunist father, Muslim stepfather and his own mother, have set the stage for a geopolitical tragedy. His historical distortions/revisions of Islam's contribution to America is evidence of his following an ideologically justified path, which fulfills his wounded psychological need to win the favor of Islam. Any one on one negotiation with an authoritarian, older male Muslim is a loaded gun pointed at America!

egil
July 1st, 2009
4:07 PM
Obama is showing clearly that he has an affinity for Left-Wing and Islamist dictators. He has been friendly and willing to "engage" with Chavez, the Castros and the Iranian mullahs, yet he denounces Honduras for ridding itself of a Chavez-like character who was acting unconstitutionally, and trying to illegally extend his rule. The pundit Charles Krauthammer also noted how Obama hasn't placed any value on freedom in his statements about Iraq. Obama certainly is a disgrace.

jemudd
June 30th, 2009
11:06 PM
Bravo! Excellent analysis. Should be read by the American press but they can only compare him to God! Sooner or later, however, he will have to change. He is not stupid and when things don't work, the will adapt. If not, God help us!

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