Therefore, instead of prompt and decisive action, but agreeably to his governance style, Obama turned to rhetoric, most prominently in his 4 June speech in Cairo. There, in the passage on Iran, Obama's "above the world" visage was on display: "I understand those who protest that some countries have weapons that others do not. No single nation should pick and choose which nation holds nuclear weapons...And any nation — including Iran — should have the right to access peaceful nuclear power if it complies with its responsibilities under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty." Moreover, on Iran's support for terrorism, such as financing Hamas and Hizbollah, the Administration has done and said little, thus effectively abdicating leadership responsibilities in dealing with Iran.
Despite the riotous outcome of the presidential election, Obama nonetheless reaffirmed on 15 June that he still wanted direct bilateral negotiations with Iran. So, such negotiations will doubtless ensue, with Tehran all the while continuing its pursuit of deliverable nuclear weapons and its support for terrorism. Much remains to unfold on the Iran front, but Obama's otherworldly approach to date does not bode well. Arab states near Iran will also sense US weakness, and react accordingly, either seeking their own nuclear weapons capabilities, or making deals with the new hegemonic power in Tehran, or both. In all events, strategic stability throughout the region will decline.
Intimately related to Iran, of course, is the Arab-Israeli dispute, and here, the "un-Bush" aspect of the Obama presidency is at its most pronounced. Among Arabs, and Muslims more generally, the response to Obama's Cairo speech was overwhelmingly favorable. The venue, the tone and the quotations from the Koran all generated enormous enthusiasm, even if most concede that the speech was short on substance. It is objectively hard to understand why the reaction should be so euphoric since the text was indistinguishable from many Bush speeches, but the fact of the reaction is indisputable.
Whether Obama's speech will make any difference in the real world, or even how long the euphoria will last, are entirely different questions. What is making a significant difference is the dramatic change in America's attitude toward Israel and the seemingly endless "Middle East peace process". Obama has, among other sea changes: adopted the European view that solving the Arab-Israeli dispute will facilitate solving all other Middle East problems; demanded adherence to the "two-state solution" with no tolerance for heresy; taken the hardest US position against expanding Israel's West Bank "settlements" since the 1967 war; and insisted on speeding up the "peace process" in ways that can only work to Israel's disadvantage. And, most importantly, Obama has leaned heavily on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu not to use military force against Iran's nuclear facilities, despite the overwhelming evidence that Tehran can now fabricate nuclear weapons at a time of its choosing, indifferent to external considerations or pressure.
Israel has never been more distant from a US Administration, but politically Obama has so far covered himself effectively with the pro-Israel community, suffering few if any adverse political consequences. He may read that community more astutely than others, sensing a weariness with Israel's struggles that he can exploit, or at least use to protect his political flanks. America's strategic priorities are, of course, independent of domestic constituencies, but the basic political fact is that if the pro-Israel community tolerates Obama's policies, it should not be surprising that many other Americans simply lose interest. That is what Obama may be counting on, as he whips Israel along the road to Damascus, Tehran and other exotic destinations.
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