When it comes to rival systems, Runciman is relatively — though cautiously — more optimistic on the prospects for mature democracies. As Tocqueville had noted, the advantage of autocratic systems is that "they are better at thinking about the long term in the short term". But, Runciman opines, "it is only a limited benefit because they get stuck with the choices they make". Autocratic regimes are far less likely to admit their mistakes and change course when necessary: "Democracy still has the advantages. But it is no better than its rivals at accessing its advantages when it needs them."
Overall, Runciman's primary message is that the strengths of democracy should not blind us to the dangers that arise — not least as a result of its own successes in the last century — and entrap us in a kind of optimism that would really be tantamount to a form of fatalism. To that extent, his main argument is not only plausible but also extremely important. It is tempting to see autocratic regimes such as China (or "hybrid" regimes such as Russia) as having major advantages over the democracies of today, and in one sense Runciman's book gives cause for concern. While exhibiting the follies and mistakes of democracies, however, he also highlights their flexibility, resourcefulness and resilience.
I found one minor oversight: the 1840 Franco-British crisis that led Tocqueville and Mill to fall out was not related to an imperial dispute over Sudan, as Runciman says, but rather to a dispute over the conquest of Syria by the Pasha of Egypt, Mehmet Ali, and the other four great powers' ultimatum to him to back down, in defiance of his French ally.
Sometimes Runciman may appear to have a Tocquevillian penchant for paradox. But his argument is brilliantly and convincingly delivered. The big story of mature democracies in crisis is told with remarkable confidence and brio. Runciman writes lucidly and compellingly: this is a book that you cannot put down. And that is a great feat when writing on a subject as complex as democracy, with its dangers and its promise inextricably bound up together.
