But, as Smith relates, that wasn't Churchill's only lucky break. He credited his nicotine addiction with saving his life in a First World War trench, when he turned back to get a matchbox and so avoided a shell blast. In an earlier war he escaped from a Boer prison, and knocked on a door, not knowing whether the person who opened it would shelter him or turn him in. It was an English mine manager, who agreed to help. Luck seemed to accompany him throughout his life.

Ed Smith himself was unlucky as an England cricketer. In only his third game for his country he suffered a bad umpiring decision which effectively ended his international career. Today it would be overturned by the off-field third umpire viewing Hawkeye replays on screen.

 But a few years later Smith found himself on a train after a complex series of minor misfortunes. In the same carriage was a beautiful young woman who had changed her travel plans at the last minute. Three years later they were married. Nobody's unlucky forever.