Meanwhile, Europe is in for a cold winter of economic discontent, while America is rapidly disengaging. With the most volatile region of the world on the brink of chaos, the only remaining superpower is absorbed in a petty sexual scandal and negotiations over taxes. It is the worst moment in modern history for such an eclipse of Western power. Nothing in the Middle East is solid or permanent. Even Constantinople's walls eventually gave way.

Seen from Jerusalem, this landscape is both alarming and reassuring. Under missile attack, Israel has not lost its composure. There have not been widespread scenes of panic. Life is continuing. Like a sturdy ship weathering a mighty storm, Israel appears undaunted. The ship will not stay dry in such a storm, but it will not sink either. 

This is not the last round, pace the peacemakers, whose optimism can sometimes be dangerously naive. But it is the round that will set the tone for future dynamics. Gone are the days when Palestinian-Israeli tensions were negotiated by Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA), Jordan and Egypt, under American tutelage. American leverage is diminished. Jordan is almost gone and has been left out entirely from negotiations. The PA is sidelined, because of its leaders' obtuseness and the rise of Islamic forces that are more comfortable working with Hamas.

Istanbul's walls, which the Romans built and the Ottomans took over, suddenly look more fragile in the face of the coming storm than Jerusalem's walls, which the Romans destroyed and the Ottomans rebuilt.

It took General Allenby and a Western army to take Jerusalem. It will take a full restoration of American power to shield the region from its worst instincts. And at this point, it looks unlikely that America will volunteer for the task.