Under Islamist control for more than a decade, Turkey is confident today under its assertive prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Since September 11, 2001, every Western leader of note has touted Turkey as the model to follow for an Islam at odds with liberal Western values. But while Turkey was paraded as the model road to freedom, the real Turkey was intent on becoming more Islamic and less liberal. Today, its leaders feel vindicated by history. The region is turning, and the tide of Islamic piety is sweeping to power. Everywhere, Islamist parties who emerge victorious from the Arab Spring look to Turkey with envy, for its combination of Western military prowess, economic success and gradual and bloodless return to the once-derided faith.
Rejected by Europe, Turkey no longer appears interested in joining it. Why else would Erdogan choose this moment to challenge the EU by reintroducing the death penalty? And why should Turkey woo Europe anyway? Istanbul appears again the cultural and commercial hub it once was. Turkey is booming while Europe is teetering on the brink of economic insolvency. Suddenly, its political horizon is the 360- degree view seen from the Topkapi palace at the tip of the promontory, overlooking the Golden Horn, the Sea of Marmara and the Bosphorus. Anatolia beckons across the water and so, further afield, does the Black Sea, with its possibilities for both cooperation and competition with Russia, an old nemesis. The Caucasus is near, and so is Iran. To the West, beyond Marmara's tranquil waters, lie Turkey's old Ottoman dominions, both European and Mediterranean, where Turkey today can reassert its influence.
And Turkey is trying. Always regarded suspiciously by the Arab world they once dominated, the heirs of the Ottoman sultans and caliphs now attract envy and admiration as the crumbling dictatorships that ruled the neighbourhood are giving way to the green flag of political Islam. It is an Islam that is comfortable with technology in the digital age yet anxious to keep Western cultural penetration at bay, filled with rage and grievance, yet unable fully to exact revenge due to its current weakness. Turkey can lead the region's Islamic awakening by speaking to that long-lost pride.
This Turkey is trying to do assiduously and without paying any significant price to its erstwhile Western friends and allies. The Obama administration still thinks, much as its Republican predecessors did, that Turkey remains a precious Nato partner. And in a time of turmoil and political correctness, the US president seems determined to let Erdogan lead the way.
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