The other leading Democratic hopefuls are Vice-President Joe Biden, who will be 74 in November 2016 and is a gaffe-prone national joke, and the governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo. One hardly gets more Establishment Democrat than Cuomo, son of former New York governor Mario Cuomo and ex-husband of Kerry Kennedy (daughter of Bobby), yet as an Italian-American he rarely misses the opportunity to play the descendant-of-immigrants card. He is handsome, intelligent, a good public speaker and will be 58 in 2016. His real attribute for Democrats will be a proven ability to run a big state in a way that will not frighten off too many Republicans. 

As governor he has cut spending without raising taxes (except for the rich), been tough over pensions and holidays with a major public-sector union, signed ethics reform legislation, passed same-sex marriage as a nonpartisan measure, imposed a property tax cap, reacted quickly and effectively to Superstorm Sandy and reformed the notorious New York tax code. His problem is that he is a New Yorker, at a time when few Americans have any affection for the city beyond a place to visit very occasionally. If for some reason Hillary doesn't run, then the impressive Maryland governor Martin O'Malley probably will, and another Democratic name to watch is the senator from Virginia, Mark Warner.

By contrast with the big three Democrats  of Clinton, Cuomo and Biden — two and a half, really, considering Biden hasn't a hope — the Republicans will be fielding at least seven viable candidates, though more will undoubtedly emerge over the next three years. The frontrunner is presently New Jersey's governor Chris Christie, a big man both physically and politically, who also had a "good" Superstorm Sandy (although many Republicans criticise him for chumming up to the President too much in gaining his state special subsidies afterwards). Christie is an impressive politician who shows that a Republican can win handsomely in a traditionally solidly Democrat state, something that should impress his party.

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush will probably be a contender in 2016, which is not as outlandish as it might sound, considering that his brother George W. has been enjoying high approval ratings since the Arab Spring, and since his tough post-9/11 measures are seen to be still keeping Americans safe from terrorist attacks. Jeb Bush speaks Spanish, has made education his forte, was a successful governor and has high name recognition. Paul Ryan, who was considered to have done well as the vice-presidential candidate on the Romney ticket, will also stand, as might Rob Portman, the junior senator from Ohio.

The tough anti-union campaigner Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin, is a man to watch, as is the Florida senator Marco Rubio, whose Hispanic parentage Republicans hope might undercut the Democrats in that key demographic (as could the Texas senator, Ted Cruz). Former Senator Rick Santorum has already been seen addressing evangelicals in Iowa, the first state to vote in the Republican primaries, as has Cruz. Bobby Jindal, the ethnically Indian governor of Louisiana, has also spoken at an Iowa fundraiser event. Jindal will be a presidential contender, but unfortunately so will Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky — son of Ron Paul who badly split the Republican vote in 2012 — who looks like running on a libertarian platform. Also not ruling out a run is the Texas governor Rick Perry, who during a debate in his run for the presidency last year managed to forget the name of one of the departments of state he intended to abolish. "That was the weakest Republican field in human history," he later joked, "and they kicked my butt!" With Donald Trump expressing interest, and even Sarah Palin not ruling herself out of the running, the 2016 line-up might turn into an even worse zoo than 2012 was.