The Republicans' biggest problem will be that after nearly a decade in the doldrums, the American economy should be strong by late 2016, albeit despite President Obama rather than because of him. Moreover they are consistently on the opposite side of social issues such as same-sex marriage from increasing numbers of the American people. Their tough stance on immigration might appeal to their party's base, but it undermines their hopes of winning even a significant part of the 12 per cent and fast-growing Hispanic vote, three-quarters of which went to Obama last time. Republicans hope and believe that Obamacare — which comes into operation on October 1, this year — might be the killer-issue for them when it turns into an expensive catastrophe for millions of Americans, but by then it will have had three years to bed down.

Whatever happens, the Republicans must change their suicidal selection process, which scheduled no fewer than 21 debates in which candidates criticised each other so viciously that they effectively did Obama's job for him. If the Republicans make gains in the 2014 mid-terms, it is not inconceivable that they might win the Senate as well as the House of Representatives. (It'll help if they don't choose the same kind of unelectable senatorial candidates as they did in 2012, including one who admitted she had once been a white witch and another who spoke of "legitimate rape".) Yet even if they do win both houses of the legislature and turn Obama into a lame-duck president in 2014, the Republicans could well be blamed if important issues such as immigration and tax reform stay unaddressed.

Despite historical precedent and however much stronger the 2016 Republican field will be, if the Republicans can't find a credible unifying cause it is still possible that, in a strong economy, either Clinton or Cuomo — or more dangerous still a Clinton-Cuomo "dream ticket" — might well kick their butts.