Proposals for pro-growth policies come in many shapes and sizes —growth led by government industrial policy, or growth led by the private sector operating in markets with only a soupçon of regulation; free trade to encourage exports, or a dash of protectionism to preserve "good British jobs"; loose monetary policy to oil the wheels of commerce, or tight monetary policy to keep inflation under control; Keynesian demand stimulation, or supply-side reforms. The list goes on. Papers urging one or several of these approaches proliferate, most of them doomed to gather dust as real-live politicians wrestle with the realities of life in Britain.
To make matters more difficult, everyone with a special policy field argues that solving the problems in his or her area must be an integral part of a growth strategy. And so they must, some day. A better educated, healthier workforce will be more productive. So will one that benefits from the application of an effective anti-drug and anti-drunkenness policy, if such exist. The economy will be more efficient (less loss due to crime) if the government figures out how to rehabilitate criminals before turning them loose. It is even arguable, at least by those with little knowledge of history or of cost/benefit analysis, that high-speed rail lines will result in a more efficient location of industry and people.But try to roll too much into a pro-growth strategy and nothing will get done — if Britain can't grow until it sorts out its education and health systems, if the managers of economic policy can't move until the ministers dealing with health, education, crime and other areas have their say, if private investment must compete with public spending on infrastructure, you will have what Tony Blair always thought he wanted —joined-up government — a system that proved to be, well, sub-optimal.
In the current circumstances, start with two ideas (one would be better, but the deficit cannot be ignored): bring sense to the public ledgers, and encourage economic growth. This, Osborne has done — almost. He still wants to spend on some pet schemes — some improvements in transport infrastructure here, fill a pot hole there, pick winners among the green investments that the markets will not fund. These are diversions from a laser-like focus on the key ingredient of a growth strategy: deficit reduction achieved within a stable or at least a predictable macroeconomic environment. The good news is that so far the government has refused to be blown off course by the current run of unhappy statistics — rising unemployment and inflation, declining growth forecasts and falling retail sales, anecdotal evidence that "the cuts" or new taxes are hurting, really hurting the most disadvantaged and the middle and entrepreneurial classes. Predictability means an entrepreneur — the source of the "animal spirits" that drive the economy — can look at the future and know just where he stands: spending will fall, taxes will rise, and until the voters feel they must call Ed Balls to ride to their rescue, that is the way it will be.
Post your comment
- Race To The White House Through The Looking-Glass
- Brexit Gives Us A Historic Opportunity
- American Conservatives Must Stand Up To Trump
- Cicero's Analysis Of Decline Offers Lessons For The West
- Deepdene: Rise and Fall of the House of Hope
- Debunking the EU Referendum Myths
- Britain's Opportunity Is Europe's Warning
- Controlling Immigration Is Good For Democracy
- The Pied Piper of Islington
- The West Cannot Afford To Ditch Nato
- End Of History — Or Clash Of Civilisations?
- We Can Defeat Islamist Terror — But Not On Our Own
- Without the Emperor, What is Left of Old Japan?
- Now Or Never
- Who Will Heal This Divided Country?
- What Made The West Great Is What Will Save Us
- Shock And Awe: Tales Of A Washington Insider
- We Shouldn't Let Old Men Rot Away In Jail
- Arnold Wesker’s Bid To Build A New Jerusalem
- Our EU Deal Gives Us The Best Of Both Worlds

















