"Incredible" is one word for what has happened since. Cameron's tragedy — if he cannot produce a flash of magic or get lucky with a recovery few forecasters are predicting — is that in embarking on his "journey" he and the modernisers made a central strategic error. From it has flowed so much of their subsequent failure. Being desperate to emphasise their modernity, they forgot — or never understood — that successful conservative leaders always secure and lock in their "base" while simultaneously reaching out to convert other voters. That applied to Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher and John Howard. It would not have occurred to any of that trio to declare war on their supporters, in the vain hope that centre-ground voters would admire them for it. All three would have known that it would be electorally disastrous.

David Cameron was better placed than any Tory leader since Thatcher to resolve this inherent tension. As a sensibly sceptical shire Tory whose motives were trusted he might have persuaded traditionalists and modernisers to work together, and he still might. The challenge facing the Conservatives, whether they are led by Cameron or a successor, remains the same. To return to the metaphor of the conclave, the Tories need a leader who can build a church with a genuinely broad congregation.