If the spectre of Jimmy Carter haunts Obama's foreign policy, then Bill Clinton is the ghost of healthcare reform-past. For the past 15 years, Clinton's failed reform plan — also introduced in his first year in office — has been a cautionary tale of the electoral consequences of pushing a left-wing agenda. Whereas Clinton interpreted the Republican victory in 1994 as a clear sign that he needed to move to the centre, Obama seems to have no intention of following this example. If anything, his position has become more intractable and partisan as public opinion has turned against him. 

"I think it's significant that he followed up the Scott Brown election by announcing his intent to end the ‘don't ask, don't tell' policy for homosexuals serving in the military," Caldwell remarked. "Leaving aside the merits of the policy itself, the issue of whether homosexuals should be able to serve openly was considered one of Clinton's signature liberal policies, which he decided to concede because of the resurgence of conservatism in the mid-Nineties. By reviving this issue, I think Obama is telling us that he is not going to concede anything." 

Although the confluence of charisma and Democratic credentials seemed to suggest a similarity between the two men, Clinton's fabled ability to win over any crowd derived from a more down-to-earth, populist style rooted in his own humble Arkansas origins, whereas Obama appears increasingly out of touch with the mainstream. And as Peter Beinart pointed out to me, Obama lacks the centrist credentials which Clinton amassed as Governor of Arkansas: "Bill Clinton ran on a less liberal platform in 1992, so when he pivoted to the centre in 1994 it seemed like a more natural shift. Obama doesn't have that kind of a record, so while he may make some tactical retreats, I think the centre of gravity will not shift substantially."

Obama may well be the anti-Clinton, inasmuch as his ideological commitment outweighs his political pragmatism. He appears so convinced by the merit of his agenda, and so unmoved by public opposition, that he has said he would "rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president." He may well get his wish. 

"I was at a Washington Wizards basketball game the other night," recounted Juan Williams. "At the half-time break, a friend of mine tapped me on the shoulder and just said: ‘Failed Presidency.' Now, this guy is a really prominent lawyer and a huge Obama supporter, yet he's convinced it's all over. I think that assessment is probably premature — but the fact remains, he has made a lot of errors very early on."

With three years left in his first term, President Obama certainly has an opportunity to recover from his anti-climactic first year in office, provided he learns from his mistakes. "The past year has taught us that Obama cannot resist the laws of gravity," said Fouad Ajami. "That doesn't mean it's time to start writing his political obituary yet, but his future clearly depends on whether he has the political antennae to start making the necessary adjustments." 

Instead of pretending, as he did in his Inaugural speech, that the "old arguments no longer apply", Obama would do well to acknowledge some enduring truths about life in power: it's messy and it requires a careful balance of both principle and compromise. But it also requires an element of intuition, an understanding of the people you govern and what they will and will not tolerate.