"In the Scott Brown election, the sleeper issue was national security," commented Michael Barone. "While people trust Obama on this overall, on specific issues such as closing Guantanamo and the handling of Abdulmutallab they strongly dissent from the administration's approach." 

Not only has the administration failed to develop convincing or coherent policies on such crucial issues, but a series of mistakes made in the past year, particularly by Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano and Attorney General Eric Holder, raise serious doubts as to the competence of the President's national security team. This puts the administration in a vulnerable position in the event of a successful terrorist attack, as it will inevitably be the first to be blamed by the Republicans and, quite probably, the public at large. 

From 9/11 to the financial crisis, the past decade has reinforced the extent to which "events, dear boy, events" cause political fortunes to prosper or suffer. At present, anxiety over the economy and other domestic concerns appears to have diverted American attention from foreign affairs. Obama has responded to this parochial moment by focusing primarily on domestic policy — so foreign policy has clearly not factored into the decline in his public support. 

Yet the combination of naiveté, cynicism and strategic incoherence which has characterised Obama's foreign policy may leave the President susceptible to accusations of weakness in the event of a crisis: for instance, the increasingly-likely prospect of a nuclear Iran. "I think he has a sincere but ultimately unjustified belief in his own powers of persuasion," remarked Caldwell. "This may mean that his foreign policy will be a disappointment in the way that Carter's was." The invocation of Carter invites an interesting historical parallel, as Carter was rendered a one-term president as much for his botched handling of the 1979 Islamic Revolution as for his disastrous economic policies. 

During my time in Washington, DC, the top question under discussion was definitely whether the healthcare Bill would pass. But the second most discussed was: win or lose, will Obama survive? 

"In the long term, only a Republican victory in the midterm elections can save him," Matthew Continetti suggested. "That will force him to start making bipartisan compromises, and it may then convince him to do what Bill Clinton did in 1994: tack to the centre and rebuild the public's trust."