Mr Miliband is right to delay, to "wait and see", in Asquith's famous temporisation on Irish Home Rule. The European parliamentary election next May will be a defining moment. If the relentless rise of UKIP continues, it is implausible that Labour could be the only party to enter the 2015 general election campaign denying the people their chance to vote in a referendum on Europe. Perhaps public opinion will shift. Perhaps the media will call time on Nigel Farage's braggadocio. After all, Senator Joe McCarthy persuaded Americans for years that Communists were controlling the United States, just as Mr Farage tells us Europe is controlling the United Kingdom, until finally journalists told the truth and McCarthy's exaggerations and distortions were seen for what they were.
Perhaps the businesses that will lose out when we leave Europe and the City firms that will see all regulation for banking, insurance, currency and commodity trades move to the continent will speak up. Perhaps Rupert Murdoch will retire to the Leveson Home for Citizen Kanes and the Sun and The Times will revert to their 1975 pro-Europe stance. Perhaps after 2015, the rest of Europe will do anything, concede any opt-out, pay any price-triple the rebate, abolish the European Court of Human Rights — in order to persuade British voters not to leave. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.
If Angela Merkel retires after 2015, the chances of a pro-British constellation being in power in Brussels and key EU capitals like Paris, Berlin, Rome and increasingly Warsaw are zero. The Conservative Party quit the main centre-right political grouping, the European People's Party, in 2009 just at the time when its affiliates were winning a majority in most EU nations, in the European Parliament and on the Commission itself.
So as I enjoyed my Paris lunch I explained to my French media friends that it was time to take seriously the idea that Britain would leave the EU if a referendum were to be held in four years' time. They all thought that British grumpiness was due to annoyance over the rebate, the influence of the Murdoch press on British politics, and a failure to understand that Britain had won most of the big EU treaty battles of recent years.
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- Learn It By Heart For The Sake Of Civilisation


















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