Where, as election year approaches, does Sarkozy go from here? If he has not yet declared his candidacy, it is an open secret that he will run. His loyal supporters and advisers are in place and are ready to mastermind his campaign. His tone is now less Atlanticist and more protectionist. He is already positioning himself as the defender of France's national interests. But can he win back the support of a sceptical and disillusioned electorate? How far can he go in proposing populist measures to reverse the growth in support for Le Pen without also alienating the centrist votes he needs to carry him to a second victory? 

The evidence so far is not encouraging. If his poll ratings remain low, will any other figures from the Right be prepared to challenge him? This is hard to guess but few parties like to back a certain loser and Sarkozy has many enemies who would relish playing a part in his downfall. Where then do his hopes lie? More likely than not, with his opponents in the French socialist party. After years of bitter infighting, the socialists have yet to choose a presidential candidate but when they do they are more than likely to make a mess of it, tearing themselves apart in the process. The arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn on charges of sexual assault threatens to deprive them of their best potential candidate, with disastrous consequences for the party. The fallout from this political explosion is still uncertain. Despite an unpopular wife, despite the vulgar tastes, despite the diplomatic disasters, despite the policy failures, it is far too early to write off Nicolas Sarkozy.