If supporters of the Yes campaign are deluded about the benefits of independence, they are deliberately negligent of its risks — thus following a trend among separatist movements elsewhere in Europe. Quite apart from the permanent damage to the UK's international prestige and power (which they see as no loss at all), there is the risk of a serious souring of relations between the Scots and the English. Contrary to what the Panglossian separatists pretend, while the Scots alone could choose separation, they alone would not dictate its terms. Nor should they, since theirs would not be the only interests involved. Nor would the interests of an independent Scotland and the remaining UK be identical. It is a practical certainty, therefore, that the separating Scots would not get all that they want, that they would be frustrated, and that their traditional resentment of England would only deepen. Moreover, given recent evidence that the complacent mood in England is changing toward alarm at the prospect of the UK's break-up, it is also likely that English resentment of the Scots would be kindled to a degree we have never seen. Perhaps the mutual alienation would only last a generation or two, perhaps no blood would be shed — but perhaps not. One of the nobler intentions of the Union was precisely to end "the centuries — long struggle" between Scotland and England, and it has been one of its finest achievements to make bloody conflict so unimaginable as to appear impossible. But appearances deceive: imagination is no constraint upon possibility. Contrary to appearances, Anglo-Scottish peace (like European peace) is a fragile historical achievement — not an immortal part of the cosmic furniture. And as we know from the troubles in Northern Ireland, history can roll alarmingly backwards. The process of separation carries real and serious risks, which its supporters recklessly ignore.
What is worse, Yes campaigners deliberately dismiss every doubt and criticism as "negative", subtly slurring them as a slander upon hope. But hope without grounds will certainly disillusion and it could well lead to shipwreck. The claimed benefits of Scottish independence are either doubtful or irresponsible, and the risks (for all of us) are considerable. Only a fool would place his faith in it.
The attractiveness of bold and reckless adventure is exaggerated, of course, by underplaying current advantages — and the benefits of the Union are as easy to overlook as the very ground we stand on. So the first act of Scottish (and English) political wisdom is to recall them with gratitude. The Union has succeeded in putting an end to centuries of Anglo-Scottish blood-letting and it continues to uphold that achievement. It has always allowed the Scots a measure of sovereignty — especially over their Church and their law — and since the creation of the Scottish Parliament in 1999, it has increased that measure and will probably increase it further. It has made its citizens among the most prosperous in the world. Its greater resources provide greater security — from defence through finance to pensions. And its imperial past, for all its moral flaws, has left the United Kingdom with a responsible awareness of the need sometimes to use hard power in the enforcement of international law and order, and so with the integrity not to lean back upon the American shield and then to pretend that it isn't necessary.
But what hope for Scotland within the United Kingdom? Not the false hope of quick, revolutionary fixes. Rather the slow-burning hope of incremental but substantial improvement, once all the intellectual and political energies now squandered on the fool's gold of independence have been refocused on analysing the country's economic, social and political problems and addressing them with all the sovereign powers already in Scottish hands.
What is worse, Yes campaigners deliberately dismiss every doubt and criticism as "negative", subtly slurring them as a slander upon hope. But hope without grounds will certainly disillusion and it could well lead to shipwreck. The claimed benefits of Scottish independence are either doubtful or irresponsible, and the risks (for all of us) are considerable. Only a fool would place his faith in it.
The attractiveness of bold and reckless adventure is exaggerated, of course, by underplaying current advantages — and the benefits of the Union are as easy to overlook as the very ground we stand on. So the first act of Scottish (and English) political wisdom is to recall them with gratitude. The Union has succeeded in putting an end to centuries of Anglo-Scottish blood-letting and it continues to uphold that achievement. It has always allowed the Scots a measure of sovereignty — especially over their Church and their law — and since the creation of the Scottish Parliament in 1999, it has increased that measure and will probably increase it further. It has made its citizens among the most prosperous in the world. Its greater resources provide greater security — from defence through finance to pensions. And its imperial past, for all its moral flaws, has left the United Kingdom with a responsible awareness of the need sometimes to use hard power in the enforcement of international law and order, and so with the integrity not to lean back upon the American shield and then to pretend that it isn't necessary.
But what hope for Scotland within the United Kingdom? Not the false hope of quick, revolutionary fixes. Rather the slow-burning hope of incremental but substantial improvement, once all the intellectual and political energies now squandered on the fool's gold of independence have been refocused on analysing the country's economic, social and political problems and addressing them with all the sovereign powers already in Scottish hands.
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