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This is a story which the British press is almost incapable of telling. We exist to tell bad news and to point out what is wrong with our masters. If we go to talk to Iain Duncan Smith about his welfare reforms, we wish at the very least to come away with a line about how the computers are not going to work. It is unprofessional to say that things are going quite well: that people like Danny Alexander, David Laws, Oliver Letwin and Ed Llewellyn are usually able to reach sensible agreements. One is liable to be dismissed as a sycophant or a bore. How much better to report, no doubt truthfully, that the coalition was last night plunged into a new row about free schools, or Europe, or press regulation, or public sector pay, or airports.

But in electoral terms, Cameron has to play to his strengths. He is unlikely ever to form a deep emotional bond with the British people. What he can do is present himself as the leader who knows how to restore this nation to prosperity. He is too self-contained and well-behaved to be loveable, but he has the unglamorous qualities of patience, stamina, reliability and reasonableness which are needed to make a partnership work. Let the Lib Dems trash their own record if they wish. If they feel the need to denounce the party with which they have worked in close harness for the last three and a half years, let them do so. But although, as Tory and Labour candidates who have fought them at local level will testify, they can be extraordinarily disreputable, nothing except a temporary relief to one's own feelings is to be gained by chucking insults back. 

I asked a policy wonk at the Tory conference what he thought the chances were of the Conservatives getting an overall majority next time. He replied: "Seven per cent." I think the chances are a bit better than that, but only if the Tories talk about the good things they intend to do, and have already done, rather than the despicable qualities of the partner with whom they did them. 

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terence patrick hewett
November 17th, 2013
5:11 PM
7% chance of an overall majority? Electoral Calculus gives 4% chance: and I am inclined to agree with the latter. I will go further: if the Tories get 80 seats at the GE they will be lucky. We need a fundamental re-alignment of political parties in England including as far as the Conservative Party is concerned a name change.

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