However, Iraq is not blessed with good neighbours. Sunni neighbours dislike a Shia/Kurd revival in a previously Sunni dominated dictatorship. Turkey trades hugely with Iraq but is heavily suspicious of the autonomy that Iraqi Kurds have gained, although diplomatic efforts seem to be bearing fruit. Iran and Syria are directly implicated in assisting militias. All seem content, as an Iraqi parliamentarian told us, with Iraq being a consumer rather than a producer.

The struggle to establish law and order under the federal state is ongoing and there will be reversals. Recent bomb attacks in Baghdad are, however, newsworthy because they have become more exceptional.

The planned provincial elections in the Autumn provide an opportunity for Sunni groups to reverse their boycott and take their share of power. There is also a consensus that parties linked to militias should be banned which may account for decision to turn the Mahdi Army into a political movement, albeit with the fig leaf of a special force dedicated to fighting the Americans.One sign of the growing confidence of the Iraqi Government is its decision to refuse being a ward of the UN and seeking, instead, to strike a bilateral agreement first with the Americans and then with other foreign powers with troops in the country under the UN’s authorisation.

The status of forces agreement will govern the conditions under which troops and the larger number of private security companies behave.

This has been misunderstood or misrepresented as an American effort to impose permanent military bases on Iraq, turn it into a vassal state and menace Iran. However, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari emphasises that the agreement is a sovereign decision between the United States and an elected constitutional government, is similar to other agreements with Arab states, that “Iraq will not be taken, based on this agreement, as a launching pad for any military or aggressive actions against the neighbouring states.” Zebari insists that the agreement will last not for 25, 50 or 100 years but for “one to two years, which can either be renewed or annulled by either one or by the two sides.”