As I remember it - and were we not a little suspicious even at the height of the mania? - the grounds of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo were notionally valued as real estate at more than the entire state of California. Japanese political stability, the unique structure of Japanese conglomerates, the co-operative nature of Japanese management methods, these were all envied and discussed in think-tanks and policy forums in the West. Then came the bursting of the asset bubble and more than a decade of economic underperformance. The Nikkei index reached a high of nearly 40,000 in 1989. By 2003, when it finally started to rise again, it was at around one-fifth of that level. It still stands under 9,000.
Which answers, I suppose, some of my selfish anxieties about the financial and economic crisis in which the world now finds itself, thanks to a bubble that has yet to be thoroughly anatomised. That is to say, life carries on, classical music still happens, I've been going regularly to Japan during the so-called "lost decade" of economic stagnation. And of course, in my world, while the cancellations have already started - especially of the big, or risky projects in opera or symphonic touring - there's a feeling that serious music for serious times is something that will, relatively, prosper. Think the spirit of the Blitz, Myra Hess at the National Gallery. It's the same vague feeling that surrounded the Obama campaign, despite its messianic hoopla, that serious times demanded a serious, thoughtful, intellectual incumbent. But in the end, who knows, we're all guessing.
I like to feel that I'm full of insight about all this. I do remember sagely pointing out on the radio in November last year the cyclical nature of economic development, and the inability of markets ever to learn from history. However, the first ructions at Northern Rock had already happened by then, there was quite a hint of trouble brewing and, more importantly, very few of us, however much we see a crash coming, can extricate ourselves from our decade-long involvement in that bubble through our houses and our small-time investments. We are all, with very rare exceptions, materially but also psychologically implicated, and that is the lesson of history.
