In September 2010, Jeffrey Goldberg wrote a brilliant feature in the Atlantic  in which he forecast Israel's "point of no return" on Iran — the article's title.

Goldberg had had extensive background conversations with very senior Israeli intelligence, military and political officials, including Israel's defence minister, Ehud Barak. He concluded that there was a 50 per cent chance of an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities before the following summer.

Goldberg is one of the most thoughtful and seasoned foreign policy commentators in America. He also has a commanding grasp of Middle East regional politics. Inevitably, his article generated dozens of responses from equally knowledgeable and senior policy analysts.

Summer 2011 came and went, but no attack took place.

Six months later, in January 2012, another seasoned investigator of Iran's nuclear dossier, Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman, spent an afternoon with Ehud Barak. The conversation focused on Iran and produced a lengthy feature piece, "Will Israel Attack Iran?", in the New York Times magazine.