And, of course, in 1997 he also lost the election. The defeat was cataclysmic-the worst Conservative result since 1906, with the party's lowest vote share since the coming of mass democracy. Major refused, however, to take the blame, which he sought to transfer to others. He was prudent enough to keep his head down. Later, when he resurfaced, it was as an outrider for No 10.
No more, it seems. Major has given up on his old protégé Cameron. He can do the arithmetic. He can read the electoral runes. He has seen the political future, and it isn't Tory.
This alone can explain the mix of carelessness and cunning that informs his utterances. The proposal to levy a windfall tax on the energy giants and recycle the money to hard-up households is nonsense. Windfall taxes are damaging because they are retrospective, undermine business confidence, and penalise both shareholders and ultimately consumers. But this shameless excursus into populism was in tune with the rest. Major complained about "pensioner poverty", even though pensioners have, by and large, been shielded from recession. He backed welfare reform, but suggested that Iain Duncan Smith was too stupid to get it right. Finally, and extraordinarily, Major claimed that "the threat of a federal Europe is as dead as Jacob Marley". The assertion is transparently false. A centralised single government of Europe is precisely what Chancellor Merkel is planning in response to the eurozone crisis.
But should Cameron be surprised? John Major's government has, in truth, little to teach the modern Conservative Party. The only lessons are cautionary tales against misreading events and mismanaging supporters. And Sir John will not soon be teaching those. The real significance of Major's intervention should give his party the shakes. He has deduced that defeat is coming and decided to apportion blame beforehand. Matthew Parris, in The Times, describes John Major as "a prophet". Moses he is not — Cassandra maybe. Major now sees more Tory Wars. These were his opening shots, and he again has Tory Bastards in his sights.
