Historically, any attempt to impose a solution from external forces has invariably failed. Failures have routinely unleashed violence that would later make compromise more difficult. By contrast, compromises between the warring sides have been more successful in working out a solution. If international mediation ever helped, as in the case of Camp David in 1979 or Oslo in 1993, it sealed a deal between willing sides, rather than imposing it on recalcitrant parties.

As seen in Libya, Europe cannot prompt such dramatic diplomatic breakthroughs on its own. It also lacks the unity to agree on such momentous foreign policy initiatives. But Europeans believe there to be both urgency and opportunity on their side. They mistakenly believe that a swift resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict can help stabilise the region's situation, and that, conversely, a lack of resolution could contribute to a dramatic escalation if things go wrong in places like Egypt. The opportunity is offered by American eclipse and the resulting possibility that European enthusiasm for a solution can carry the day. The opposite is true. 

No country that would have to take serious risks (not only Israel but all states with rising Islamic parties or a challenge to their rulers from restive populations) will be willing to make even minimal concessions until the dust settles. Besides, Europe does not carry the weight of America. It cannot offer credible guarantees that both sides desperately need if a deal is to be successful. A new peace initiative will merely prompt a blame game while it is ongoing and a new threat of violence once it fails — it has happened in the past with deadly punctuality.

The current turmoil in the Middle East means many things — mainly the moral bankruptcy of four decades of European foreign policy, including the morbid obsession with forcing Israel into ever-growing concessions for the sake of an elusive peace that exists only in the Western mind.

Europe should approach the subject with humility but will not. Brace yourselves. The EU peace initiative is about to begin.