So the Democrats have the short-term political conditions — the economy, the war, the national mood — in their favour. They have the political momentum and the energy. They have the candidate who seems to encapsulate the hunger for change. And they even have a long-term wave of demographic realignment going for them.
Should John McCain and the Republicans simply concede now? Not quite. It’s worth remembering, first of all, that Democrats have proved themselves capable of losing elections even in highly favourable circumstances. The British Conservative party used to enjoy the reputation of the world’s most feared election-fighting machine — and might reclaim it one day. But for now the US Republicans surely have that title. They have won seven of the last 10 presidential elections. They are the only party in the past 70 years to have successfully resisted the rising tide of change and won a third straight presidential election — in 1988.
You can go back further and discover that in the 150 years since the modern American party system was founded, the Democrats have won a majority of the popular vote in presidential elections on only six occasions — and three of them were by just one man, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the only person to win three terms.
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