The Democrats look reinvigorated for the first time in a decade. They have just completed the most competitive and energised primary election campaign in modern history. Between them, Senators Clinton and Obama brought 36 million voters to the polls — twice as many as have voted in a primary in the past, and almost twice as many as voted in the Republican contest. They raised nearly $600 million (£300 million) for their campaigns. Senator McCain managed barely $100 million.

Despite the occasionally bitter campaign — and with the exception of the Clintons and a few of their die-hard friends — the Democrats are firmly united behind their candidate. Though their stewardship of Congress for the past year and a half has been less than spectacular, they are steadily tightening their grip. Republicans have lost three special elections in the House of Representatives already this year — and look set to lose many more in November.

The macro political conditions could not be more favourable for the party seeking to capture the White House. The economy is mired — if not actually in recession, then in a period of stagnant growth. As Al Gore noted back in 1992, when standing as the Vice-Presidential candidate against Bush Senior, everything that should be going up is going down and everything that should be going down is going up: house prices are falling, unemployment is rising, oil prices and inflation are surging and incomes and output are slumping.