RS: You always say "I am correct." Please allow yourself a moment or two of doubt. I think that most Keynesians, including Keynes himself, thought that the savings-investment analysis was the fundamental one. It relates to his view as to why economies collapse. The General Theory has two chapters on the consumption function, he has four chapters on the investment function, including the role of the rate of interest. The bulk of the book is about the relationship between saving and investment.
It is true that Keynes did not believe that you could recover from a deep recession simply by borrowing money from the public; in other words, by increasing the government's debt. He didn't think you could do that because he thought there was a danger of financial crowding-out, unless you increase the quantity of money. And he thought that increasing the quantity of money was an absolutely essential part of a recovery process — it was necessary because it would lower the cost at which government had to borrow. In other words, it was part of deficit finance.
And you say this in the article you wrote in January — you admit this. You say: "Money creation is a way for the government to finance its budget deficit." Now, Keynes would agree with that, of course he would. But budget deficit is the point here. It's the budget deficit that's crucial, and increasing the money supply is a way of financing the budget deficit without driving up short-term rates of interest. Now I think he accepted that. But why, despite the fact that there was a slump going on, was the existing supply of money not enough? Because he did think that people were increasing their money balances. That was characteristic of the decline in investment.
TC: Robert, I don't follow. You were saying the reason there wasn't enough money was because people were increasing their money balances...
RS: Hoarding — they were increasing their hoarding, or their propensity to hoard. And that was why, if the government was trying to borrow money from the public in order to spend and people were increasing their hoarding or their desire to hoard at the same time, there would be a tendency for the rate of interest to go up. And it was to counteract that that he wanted the money supply increased. That's all very clear, not in the General Theory so clearly, but in an article he wrote in 1937 when he conceded that there might be some financial crowding-out even though the resources were seriously unemployed.
TC: So in that period Keynes thought that an increase in the quantity of money was important to recovery?
RS: He did. He thought it might be a necessity but he never thought it would be a sufficient condition.
TC: So you'd agree that at the moment it's a good thing to have an increase in the quantity of money?
RS: Yes, yes!
TC: Good.
RS: I've never denied it. You know this idea that Keynes wanted larger governments, that he wanted an enormously bigger economic size of the state, is rubbish. He actually doubted whether government should spend more than 25 per cent of the national income. He didn't want a permanent increase in the size of the state, but he made a big distinction between when you're in a slump and when you're in normal times. In normal times you want to balance the budget and have as low a rate of taxation as is compatible with economic growth and these kinds of things. This is all true — you can't make Keynes out to be this monster who wanted the size of the state to grow and grow and grow.
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