TC: Now Robert, I'm going to cause you a problem: I want quotes for that, please.
RS: No you can't — that is just a debating point.
TC: It's quite important, because I've read Keynes, and you're not right.
RS: I am right. There were two elements in Keynes. What he thought was that you could offset, up to a point, a collapse in the demand for loans by increasing the supply of money. And by collapse in the demand for loans he simply meant that when confidence fell, liquidity preference increased, and you could try and fight the increase in liquidity preference by flooding the banking system with money. But the basic cause of the collapse of the money supply was a collapse in the demand for loans, and you can follow that in his chapters on long-term expectations, and on the rate of interest.
And here's another quote — you asked for a quote, and you supplied the quote yourself, let me read you your quote. You say: "If there is some tendency to a measure of long-run uniformity in the state of liquidity preference" — an important proviso — "there may well be some sort of rough relationship between the national income and the quantity of money, taken as a mean over periods of pessimism and optimism together."
That is a long-run relationship, and it depends on an assumption that liquidity preference stays the same. And that assumption is not in Keynes, it's not in the General Theory, it just isn't.
TC: It's certainly true that Keynes claimed that problems in the economy arise because of instability in the demand to hold money balances. That is certainly part of his theory. Empirically, he's wrong.
RS: He's not wrong. How do you explain today? Although there's been substantial quantitative easing, the actual growth in the demand for loans has been small, and in fact, I quoted you these figures already: net lending in July fell in the UK at its fastest pace since records began in 1993.
TC: Look, bank deposits and bank loans are totally different things.
RS: Doesn't matter, I know that. It's the demand for loans that's important.
TC: Oh no, it's not.
RS: : Oh yes it is, of course it is. You can make credit facilities available, it's the spending that matters.
TC: Let's get this absolutely straight in terms of definitions. Liquidity preference is the demand to hold money balances. Is that correct or not?
RS: Liquidity preference is the demand to hold money balances, yes. And that can fluctuate.
TC: And national income is determined by the interaction between the quantity of money created by the banking system, which does indeed depend partly upon loans to the private sector, and the demand to hold money. But money can be created by the state if it borrows from the banks. Bank lending to the private sector is not necessary at all.
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