TC: Let's just think about what you just said.
RS: I always try to.
TC: Let's just be clear about what you've just said. You said there has been a discretionary fiscal boost so far.
RS: Yes, of 1.4 per cent GDP.
TC: OK, and do you think that has really been critical, is boosting the economy?
RS: No. I've said that there have been two types of fiscal expansion: the discretionary boost, and the effect of the automatic stabilisers.
TC: OK, so now let me ask you, how do you explain the recession? What has caused it?
A lot of these things come together. All great crashes are multi-caused. And the same is true of the Great Depression itself. Now I don't know where this leads exactly, but its effect was a credit freeze, which started in September 2007, when banks stopped lending to each other and to their customers, and the real economy started to wind down. There was a big collapse in aggregate demand globally, and once that had started, it went on, because of the multiplied effects of the initial drop in aggregate spending.
TC: Keynes was a great monetary economist, and his favoured measure of money was one that included all bank deposits — that's very clear from an explicit footnote in the General Theory and the rest of his work. And therefore we'd expect, if Keynes's theory was right, that at least part of the background of this recession would be a collapse in the rate of growth of money. You'd also think that if you had read Friedman's work. Then look at the data, and that's exactly what we find: we find that in America, we find it here too.
So if you ask me what the dominant cause is I would say that the banking system got into trouble, pressure was wrongly put on the banking system to shrink risk assets, and the result was that the growth of money, which had already been fading from the middle of 2007, then collapsed last year.
We ended up with this ghastly recession. The discussion of this recession can be pursued in terms that Keynes would have found familiar in the 1930s, and would have had have no difficulty with, and in those discussions the quantity of money would have been basic.
RS: It wouldn't. That's where you're wrong. Of course any recession is accompanied by a collapse in the amount of money in the economy. The question is what causes that collapse? And for Keynes it was always a decrease in the demand for loans that was the causative factor in the collapse in the supply of money.
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