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TC: Let's just think about what you just said.

RS: I always try to.

TC: Let's just be clear about what you've just said. You said there has been a discretionary fiscal boost so far.

RS: Yes, of 1.4 per cent GDP. 

TC: OK, and do you think that has really been critical, is boosting the economy?

RS: No. I've said that there have been two types of fiscal expansion: the discretionary boost, and the effect of the automatic stabilisers.

TC: OK, so now let me ask you, how do you explain the recession? What has caused it?

RS: The recession started before any of these recovery programmes. We had the sub-prime collapse. We had the financial innovations and a huge explosion of securitisation, which were all based on risk control models which Keynes would have said claimed far more than they could deliver. We had a big increase in oil and commodity prices. We had, in the background, the global imbalances between China and the United States — in a Keynesian analysis, 
excess saving in China and excess spending, based on very cheap money, in America, without really a very strong investment, so that a lot of it went into asset bubbles and consumer indebtedness. 

A lot of these things come together. All great crashes are multi-caused. And the same is true of the Great Depression itself. Now I don't know where this leads exactly, but its effect was a credit freeze, which started in September 2007, when banks stopped lending to each other and to their customers, and the real economy started to wind down. There was a big collapse in aggregate demand globally, and once that had started, it went on, because of the multiplied effects of the initial drop in aggregate spending. 

TC: Keynes was a great monetary economist, and his favoured measure of money was one that included all bank deposits — that's very clear from an explicit footnote in the General Theory and the rest of his work. And therefore we'd expect, if Keynes's theory was right, that at least part of the background of this recession would be a collapse in the rate of growth of money. You'd also think that if you had read Friedman's work. Then look at the data, and that's exactly what we find: we find that in America, we find it here too. 

So if you ask me what the dominant cause is I would say that the banking system got into trouble, pressure was wrongly put on the banking system to shrink risk assets, and the result was that the growth of money, which had already been fading from the middle of 2007, then collapsed last year. 

We ended up with this ghastly recession. The discussion of this recession can be pursued in terms that Keynes would have found familiar in the 1930s, and would have had have no difficulty with, and in those discussions the quantity of money would have been basic.

RS: It wouldn't. That's where you're wrong. Of course any recession is accompanied by a collapse in the amount of money in the economy. The question is what causes that collapse? And for Keynes it was always a decrease in the demand for loans that was the causative factor in the collapse in the supply of money.

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Ralph Mugrave
October 23rd, 2010
12:10 PM
In your flax economy you say that printing money destroys “the value of the participants' cash balances”. So how come the monetary base of the U.S. increased by an astronomic and unprecedented amount 18 months ago, yet inflation is currently at record lows? As distinct from the above evidence, and moving on to the INTENTION behind money printing, the intention or objective is to bring sufficient extra demand to bring full employment, but not so much as to cause excess inflation. Also in your flax economy you make the very unrealistic assumption that there is only one final product, namely clothing, and that the market for this is saturated. But let’s run with that assumption. An economy where there are no consumers who want any more goods or services is an economy where there is no unemployment. That is there is no one who wants to work extra hours so as to consume more. No Keynsian with any common sense would advocate money printing (or any other method of increasing demand) in these circumstances.

Richard Allan
March 30th, 2010
12:03 AM
I'm an economics graduate from the LSE, and I don't understand why this article concentrates on those parts of "macroeconomics" which we only teach to first-year students, and abandon in embarassment by the end of even a three-year Bachelor's degree. The ideas being discussed in this article have absolutely no currency with the economists that I've known. The idea that printing money, or increasing consumption, can somehow increase wealth is ludicrous. Anyone constructing a theoretical economy in his head should be able to see this for himself. Printing money will discourage people from holding cash balances; this will INCREASE instability in the economy by leaving people more vulnerable to liquidity demands. Increasing consumption can only destroy accumulated wealth all the faster. Let's say we have an economy where one worker grows food, another flax, and a third weaves flax into linen. They each "hoard" cash in expectation of future spending requirements. Now suddenly the demand for linen and therefore flax drops off; perhaps the market for clothing has become saturated. What's the commonsense response? Telling the two textile workers to find new jobs. But this would cause "excess capacity" in the economy (the land would have to be ploughed under before it could grow anything else, and the sewing machines are worthless) and "unemployment", which Keynesians can't allow. So what's their solution? Print money, destroying the value of the participants' cash balances, and use it to "stimulate the demand" for textiles, presumably by buying the stuff up and burning it (as we all know occurred during the New Deal). This allows the textile workers to keep their jobs! But what happens to savers? Well, either they have to shrug their shoulders and eliminate their "real savings", leaving them vulnerable to "liquidity shocks" (like a sudden bout of illness rendering them unable to work), or they switch their cash savings for, well, REAL savings; ie. stored food. But assuming the economy is producing the maximum amount of food possible (at least until the flax land is repurposed, which we've decided to prevent for the sake of the textile industry), increasing the amount of "hoarded" food is surely worse for food consumption than any amount of "hoarded" cash. At least someone was eating the damn stuff beforehand! So if the farmer decides to stop saving, and is then laid low by illness, there will be a very sudden "panic" in the economy as textile workers scramble for food production. But if workers replace their cash savings with food savings, inflation won't work any more! You can't print food with which to buy clothes; and since the farmer doesn't want to trade food for clothes (he has enough already), and doesn't want to hold cash (loses its value too quickly), we'll end up with the textile industry collapsing either way! The only difference is that in the meantime, we forced people to make an undesired switch from cash savings to either "no savings" (more volatility in the economy as a result of unpredictable expenditures) or "real savings" (reducing the supply of real goods for consumption). The "fiscal" alternative is a similar Devil's bargain. Either take the farmer's food in taxes now, or borrow food from him, promising to tax him later to pay back his own debt (Ricardian Equivalence shows that these two are exactly similar in terms of effects). If the taxes cause him to scale back his production of food, then you've reduced real wealth in the economy. But if they don't, then surely the taxable proceeds would be better invested somewhere else than in a failing line of business? The same can be said if inflation somehow doesn't cause anyone to alter his cash balances; the concept of opportunity cost means that wasting money (and goods!) by putting them to bad use is just as bad as destroying them. The only way that printing money can increase wealth is if there is genuinely idle capital in the economy which could be devoted to the production of real value (ie. happiness), but for whatever reason, is not. However, the only plausible mechanism by which this capital could be put to work by printing money is if wages are "sticky downwards", so the workers are effectively refusing to work for a utility-maximising wage. But firstly, printing money to force down their real wages was a stupid idea in Keynes's time (where index-linked wage contracts were already becoming commonplace) and is an even more stupid idea nowadays. It will just not have the desired effect. And secondly, if workers refuse to work for a utility-maximising wage, this must be regarded as a voluntary decision on their part; and as a believer in the Harm Principle, I don't believe it's the government's role to reverse voluntary decisions (or "indecisions"). And thirdly, I find it far more likely that diverting any funds to government will be used to reward unproductive special interests than to match genuine demand with genuine excess capacity. In conclusion, I find that this entire article is based on a vision of economics that is (i) out of favour with the economics establishment, (ii) easily disprovable by thought-experiment to anyone capable of consecutive thought, and (iii) a mere attempt to justify government intervention in the economy for its own sake, and for the sake of increasing the "mystique" surrounding economics in order to justify an increase in economists' salaries. The fact that it has attracted no comments thus far is evidence that it has been treated by the readers with the confusion and indifference that it deserves; I simply couldn't allow it to go unchallenged myself.

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