Despite all of this regional turmoil, Secretary of State John Kerry has chosen to focus on Arab-Israeli peace talks, the traditional graveyard of second-term US presidential foreign policy. Direct peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians started in July 2013 but have made no progress. Obama is applying pressure, primarily on Israel, to agree to a framework for a new round of negotiations. Although Kerry has stated that "failure is not an option", Obama has publicly suggested that the window for a two-state solution is rapidly closing. Obama's position is difficult to explain, since both America and Israel are in reality more concerned with the future of Iran. Therefore the idea of pressurising Israel to make concessions while facilitating an emboldened Iran seems contradictory.
In the absence of a guiding strategy, Obama has let the future of America's strategic posture be dictated by sweeping cuts to defence spending. The scale of the cuts cannot be underestimated. The army alone will return to levels not seen since the end of the Second World War. The cuts are similar to those suggested by Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld before 9/11, when he proposed to shrink and modernise the armed forces. Obama's justification for the cuts is that "the tide of war is receding", referring to the cessation of hostilities in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, his mistake is to assume that the world has returned, more or less, to the shape and apparent stability it had at the start of this century. While the size of the cuts is dictated by fiscal reality, their shape is deliberate and will see America voluntarily relinquish the ability to fight two wars simultaneously, a cornerstone of post-Cold War planning. The rationale is to create a military powerful enough to fight any single adversary but not capable of extended occupation or combat.
With the rise of tension in both Asia and Europe, losing the ability to conduct two simultaneous campaigns is a significant miscalculation. As the US National Intelligence Council made clear, "While no single country looks within striking distance of rivalling US military power by 2020, more countries will be in a position to make the US pay a heavy price for any military action they oppose."
This is a change in the way America chooses to exercise power. The emphasis is now to be placed on burden-sharing. Events in the Ukraine and relations with Japan illustrate two extremes of problems with burden sharing: allies who either take their military posture too far or not far enough.
Obama has shaped his strategy around the world as he wishes it to be. His idealism needs recalibrating. As Georgia and Ukraine demonstrate, although Russia has lost strategic status to the US and is badly hampered by a corrupt political class and stagnating economy, it can still wage violent military conflict and punitive energy pricing when it views its vital interests as under threat. It is unknown whether Russia has fulfilled its strategic aims but what is certain is Putin is proving himself adept at tactically exploiting crises.
Events have underscored the urgent need for Obama to redefine America's vision of the world. As the remaining superpower, America needs to reassert its role as the champion of democracy and global stability. So far, Obama has demonstrated his willingness to stay the course by managing the Ukraine crisis from the end of a phone, during a pressing Florida vacation.
US presidents tend to use their second term in office for grand foreign policy initiatives but Obama's State of the Union address this year reaffirmed that his interests are predominantly domestic and his approach to foreign policy remains incoherent. The stakes are high and not just for America. Without a logically consistent roadmap for the use of American power, a multitude of global flashpoints will continue to force the great powers into dangerous regional confrontations with a high prospect of escalation. Furthermore, the flame of democracy, in whose defence America has invested so much blood and treasure, will be left to flicker and die.
In the absence of a guiding strategy, Obama has let the future of America's strategic posture be dictated by sweeping cuts to defence spending. The scale of the cuts cannot be underestimated. The army alone will return to levels not seen since the end of the Second World War. The cuts are similar to those suggested by Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld before 9/11, when he proposed to shrink and modernise the armed forces. Obama's justification for the cuts is that "the tide of war is receding", referring to the cessation of hostilities in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, his mistake is to assume that the world has returned, more or less, to the shape and apparent stability it had at the start of this century. While the size of the cuts is dictated by fiscal reality, their shape is deliberate and will see America voluntarily relinquish the ability to fight two wars simultaneously, a cornerstone of post-Cold War planning. The rationale is to create a military powerful enough to fight any single adversary but not capable of extended occupation or combat.
With the rise of tension in both Asia and Europe, losing the ability to conduct two simultaneous campaigns is a significant miscalculation. As the US National Intelligence Council made clear, "While no single country looks within striking distance of rivalling US military power by 2020, more countries will be in a position to make the US pay a heavy price for any military action they oppose."
This is a change in the way America chooses to exercise power. The emphasis is now to be placed on burden-sharing. Events in the Ukraine and relations with Japan illustrate two extremes of problems with burden sharing: allies who either take their military posture too far or not far enough.
Obama has shaped his strategy around the world as he wishes it to be. His idealism needs recalibrating. As Georgia and Ukraine demonstrate, although Russia has lost strategic status to the US and is badly hampered by a corrupt political class and stagnating economy, it can still wage violent military conflict and punitive energy pricing when it views its vital interests as under threat. It is unknown whether Russia has fulfilled its strategic aims but what is certain is Putin is proving himself adept at tactically exploiting crises.
Events have underscored the urgent need for Obama to redefine America's vision of the world. As the remaining superpower, America needs to reassert its role as the champion of democracy and global stability. So far, Obama has demonstrated his willingness to stay the course by managing the Ukraine crisis from the end of a phone, during a pressing Florida vacation.
US presidents tend to use their second term in office for grand foreign policy initiatives but Obama's State of the Union address this year reaffirmed that his interests are predominantly domestic and his approach to foreign policy remains incoherent. The stakes are high and not just for America. Without a logically consistent roadmap for the use of American power, a multitude of global flashpoints will continue to force the great powers into dangerous regional confrontations with a high prospect of escalation. Furthermore, the flame of democracy, in whose defence America has invested so much blood and treasure, will be left to flicker and die.
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