Yet recent survey research on the political behaviour of members of ethnic minorities commissioned by the Economic and Social Research Council has revealed some encouraging facts. A 2013 study, The Democratic Engagement of Britain’s Ethnic Minorities, based on the ESRC survey found there was relatively little difference in voting turnout between the white and Asian communities. Only among African and Caribbean groups is there a serious degree of abstention. Declared feelings of trust in British political institutions are greater among all ethnic minority groups apart from Caribbeans than among whites, though these feelings of trust decline among the children of ethnic immigrants.
In summary, there are severe defects in the manner in which the election is being organised and in the relative absence of debate about some core issues. Will the right lessons be drawn?
For constitutional reformers, the most important feature of the electoral scene in 2015 is likely to be a further decline in the proportion of citizens who support either of the two main political parties. With the expected collapse of the Labour vote in Scotland in favour of the Scottish Nationalists, the sharp decline of the Liberal Democrats following their change in 2010 from party of protest to party of government, and the rise of UKIP and the Greens as beneficiaries of the legion of the fed-up, the scene has become unprecedented in its confusion. In the weeks before the poll, this will make the result exceptionally hard to predict and it will be even harder to predict the government which will subsequently emerge.
The situation is already being seen by advocates of constitutional change as vindication of their condemnation of traditional two-party politics and as a golden opportunity to press for change. Professor Vernon Bogdanor has gone so far as to argue that if the Palace of Westminster needs architectural repairs, the current chamber of the House of Commons should be replaced by the horseshoe configuration typically used in multi-party legislatures elected by proportional representation.
There has been little let-up in reform propaganda. Proponents of the traditional Westminster Model, mainly but not solely to be found in Conservative party circles, have proved complacent, disorganised and slow to respond. As a result, civil servants have depended unduly on the reformers for their views on the actual and desirable working of the unwritten constitution, especially as it concerns the formation of a new government. The fact that it is such a technical matter means that there is little reporting about it. Yet the consequences may be both far-reaching and undesirable.
In the weeks before the 2010 election, a group of constitutional reformers effected what amounted to a very British coup by their advice to the then Cabinet Secretary Gus (now Lord) O’Donnell about the would-be rules of the game following an election in which no party won an overall majority of seats (a “hung” election). The details were described in my Standpoint articles in April and December 2011 and October 2012 and were challenged by Professor Robert Hazell in a letter in the November 2012 issue.
These supposed constitutional conventions were set out in successive drafts of a new document called The Cabinet Manual. At the eleventh hour, the Cabinet Secretary rushed out a highly questionable draft of the chapter relating to government formation in the event of a hung parliament. A House of Commons Committee then took evidence at short notice from the constitutional reformers who had been the main advisers on the Manual. There was no time for independent views. The controversial chapter had a significant effect on the conduct of the coalition negotiations of May 2010, to the distinct advantage of the Liberal Democrats.
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