An illustrative example of avoidance of discussion is the future of the UK’s relationship with the European Union. Whether and when to hold a referendum on UK membership has substituted for serious discussion about the broad objectives of any renegotiation that would precede a referendum. The far-reaching implications of the process of enlargement of the EU have not been set out for the public. The main parties do not wish to declare their opposition to Balkan and Turkish membership despite the prospect that the free movement of its population into the UK would produce an influx greater than from Romania and Bulgaria. It also would create a common border between the enlarged EU and troubled countries such as Syria, Iraq and Iran.
By contrast to the problems which have been mentioned, two of the most frequently cited difficulties are less severe than often supposed. There is a great deal of talk about voter disengagement, especially among the young, and the low voting turnout which apparently results from it.
But it is too easy to blame disengagement for difficulties which arise from neglect by the authorities of the task of registering voters by the annual house-to-house canvass required by the law. There is no reason why the problem of non-registration among young voters cannot be solved despite the admitted difficulty of their frequent changes of address. Rigorous administration together with a computerised national register and a willingness to use penalties along the lines of parking fines for non-compliance can do the trick. There is also a frequently ignored technical factor in turnout statistics in general elections. When taken into account, this somewhat moderates the downward trend line. As mentioned before, the electoral registers include a growing number and proportion of wrongly retained names. Fraudulent votes may indeed be cast on behalf of some of these ghost names but probably only in a small proportion of them. Therefore most of those wrongly included will be recorded as non-voters. Even if every single qualified elector casts a ballot, the turnout rate would still be under 90 per cent. The actual proportion of non-voters is considerably lower than shown in the raw figures.
The ethnic vote is another issue which has been perceived as a greater problem than it is in reality. This is not to deny the significant increase in the number of immigrant electors, including those from predominantly Muslim countries, shown in comparisons between the censuses of 2001 and 2011. Measured in partisan terms, the rapidly increasing number of minority ethnic voters is a considerable disadvantage to the Conservatives. The loss of an estimated 10 seats because of ethnic voting largely accounted for David Cameron’s failure to win an outright majority in 2010. The Conservatives won only 16 per cent of the ethnic vote compared with Labour’s 68 per cent. According to Operation Black Vote, the number of seats dependent on the ethnic vote will be 70 per cent higher in 2015 than in 2010. Voting patterns differ between ethnic groups and attachment to Labour is becoming less secure, though the party’s overall advantage is still striking.
In terms of the democratic character of the forthcoming contest, questions of party advantage are unimportant. What matters is the threat of extremist discourse. The inclusion of a chapter on religious extremism in Roger Eatwell’s book The New Extremism in 21st Century Britain (Routledge, 2010) is an indication that it is, at the very least, a topic for discussion. In local government elections, electoral fraud has occurred to a disproportionate extent among immigrant communities. There is a danger of the importation of Middle Eastern conflicts.
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